John Swinney holds a commanding lead in the market for Scotland’s next First Minister because he secured re-election as SNP leader and won his constituency seat in the May 7, 2026 Holyrood election, positioning the party to form the next government despite falling short of a majority. Recent polling and results show the SNP gaining seats while opposition parties, including Labour under Anas Sarwar, underperformed, reinforcing Swinney’s parliamentary advantage in any nomination vote. Traders assign only slim odds to alternatives such as Anas Sarwar or Alex Cole-Hamilton because no other figure currently commands comparable cross-party support or institutional backing. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen parliamentary deadlock or Swinney stepping aside before the formal appointment process concludes later this month.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於John Swinney 99.6%
Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%
Malcolm Offord <1%
Russell Findlay <1%
$11,060 交易量
$11,060 交易量
John Swinney
100%
Alex Cole-Hamilton
1%
Malcolm Offord
1%
Russell Findlay
1%
Anas Sarwar
<1%
Ross Greer
<1%
Gillian Mackay
<1%
John Swinney 99.6%
Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%
Malcolm Offord <1%
Russell Findlay <1%
$11,060 交易量
$11,060 交易量
John Swinney
100%
Alex Cole-Hamilton
1%
Malcolm Offord
1%
Russell Findlay
1%
Anas Sarwar
<1%
Ross Greer
<1%
Gillian Mackay
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...John Swinney holds a commanding lead in the market for Scotland’s next First Minister because he secured re-election as SNP leader and won his constituency seat in the May 7, 2026 Holyrood election, positioning the party to form the next government despite falling short of a majority. Recent polling and results show the SNP gaining seats while opposition parties, including Labour under Anas Sarwar, underperformed, reinforcing Swinney’s parliamentary advantage in any nomination vote. Traders assign only slim odds to alternatives such as Anas Sarwar or Alex Cole-Hamilton because no other figure currently commands comparable cross-party support or institutional backing. A realistic challenge would require an unforeseen parliamentary deadlock or Swinney stepping aside before the formal appointment process concludes later this month.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions