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政治·下午

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Italy?
政治·下午

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Giorgia Meloni 52%

Elly Schlein 15%

Giuseppe Conte 12%

羅貝托·瓦納奇 7.9%

Polymarket

$75,459 交易量

Giorgia Meloni 52%

Elly Schlein 15%

Giuseppe Conte 12%

羅貝托·瓦納奇 7.9%

Polymarket

$75,459 交易量

Giorgia Meloni

$8,653 交易量

52%

Elly Schlein

$5,675 交易量

15%

Giuseppe Conte

$5,139 交易量

12%

Antonio Tajani

$2,102 交易量

<1%

Matteo Salvini

$3,330 交易量

<1%

Guido Crosetto

$1,464 交易量

<1%

Mario Draghi

$2,268 交易量

3%

西爾維婭·薩利斯

$8,526 交易量

8%

羅貝托·瓦納奇

$33,185 交易量

8%

馬泰奧·倫齊

$1,567 交易量

1%

安傑洛·博內利

$1,722 交易量

<1%

卡洛·卡倫達

$1,828 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Giorgia Meloni holds the leading position in trader consensus as incumbent prime minister heading Italy's center-right coalition, which has sustained a parliamentary majority since 2022 amid her party's consistent lead in recent voting-intention polls ahead of the general election due by December 2027. A March 2026 referendum loss on judicial reforms and a July parliamentary defeat on electoral preference voting have tempered her approval and coalition cohesion, while opposition fragmentation between the center-left PD under Elly Schlein and the M5S under Giuseppe Conte limits unified challenges. Roberto Vannacci's rising far-right polling share introduces potential coalition realignment pressures on the right. These dynamics shape implied probabilities around structural incumbency advantages versus risks from voter shifts and any snap election timing.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$75,459
結束日期
2028-12-31
市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Giorgia Meloni holds the leading position in trader consensus as incumbent prime minister heading Italy's center-right coalition, which has sustained a parliamentary majority since 2022 amid her party's consistent lead in recent voting-intention polls ahead of the general election due by December 2027. A March 2026 referendum loss on judicial reforms and a July parliamentary defeat on electoral preference voting have tempered her approval and coalition cohesion, while opposition fragmentation between the center-left PD under Elly Schlein and the M5S under Giuseppe Conte limits unified challenges. Roberto Vannacci's rising far-right polling share introduces potential coalition realignment pressures on the right. These dynamics shape implied probabilities around structural incumbency advantages versus risks from voter shifts and any snap election timing.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$75,459
結束日期
2028-12-31
市場開放時間
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Prime Minister of Italy?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Giorgia Meloni" at 52%, followed by "Elly Schlein" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 52¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" has generated $75.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 21, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Next Prime Minister of Italy?," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" is "Giorgia Meloni" at 52%, meaning the market assigns a 52% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Elly Schlein" at 14%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.