Analilia Mejia's April 2026 special election victory, where she captured roughly 60% of the vote as the Democratic nominee in the open seat previously held by Mikie Sherrill, has anchored trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November general. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+5, combined with Mejia's primary win and subsequent consolidation of support, aligns with historical patterns favoring the incumbent party in suburban New Jersey seats. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national midterm environment, sustained erosion of Mejia's coalition in key suburbs, or late developments that alter turnout among independent and moderate voters.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$39,548 交易量
$39,548 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
6%
$39,548 交易量
$39,548 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
$23,573 交易量
95%
Republican Party
$15,975 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Analilia Mejia's April 2026 special election victory, where she captured roughly 60% of the vote as the Democratic nominee in the open seat previously held by Mikie Sherrill, has anchored trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November general. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+5, combined with Mejia's primary win and subsequent consolidation of support, aligns with historical patterns favoring the incumbent party in suburban New Jersey seats. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national midterm environment, sustained erosion of Mejia's coalition in key suburbs, or late developments that alter turnout among independent and moderate voters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$39,548結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Analilia Mejia's April 2026 special election victory, where she captured roughly 60% of the vote as the Democratic nominee in the open seat previously held by Mikie Sherrill, has anchored trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November general. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+5, combined with Mejia's primary win and subsequent consolidation of support, aligns with historical patterns favoring the incumbent party in suburban New Jersey seats. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national midterm environment, sustained erosion of Mejia's coalition in key suburbs, or late developments that alter turnout among independent and moderate voters.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$39,548結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Analilia Mejia's April 2026 special election victory, where she captured roughly 60% of the vote as the Democratic nominee in the open seat previously held by Mikie Sherrill, has anchored trader expectations for a Democratic hold in the November general. The district's Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+5, combined with Mejia's primary win and subsequent consolidation of support, aligns with historical patterns favoring the incumbent party in suburban New Jersey seats. Cook Political Report and other forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national midterm environment, sustained erosion of Mejia's coalition in key suburbs, or late developments that alter turnout among independent and moderate voters.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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