New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean rooted in its demographics, voting patterns, and consistent performance in prior cycles. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman created an open seat that drew a crowded Democratic primary, which Adam Hamawy won in mid-2026 with a plurality against multiple challengers including elected officials and academics. Republican Gregg Mele secured the GOP nomination with minimal opposition. Traders price the Democratic nominee as a heavy favorite ahead of the November 2026 general election because structural advantages in registration, turnout, and district composition have historically produced comfortable margins. A national Republican wave, significant candidate-specific scandal, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though such shifts would need to overcome entrenched local dynamics to alter the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$22,311 交易量
$22,311 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
94%
共和黨
6%
$22,311 交易量
$22,311 交易量
2026-11-02
民主黨
$14,221 交易量
94%
共和黨
$8,089 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean rooted in its demographics, voting patterns, and consistent performance in prior cycles. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman created an open seat that drew a crowded Democratic primary, which Adam Hamawy won in mid-2026 with a plurality against multiple challengers including elected officials and academics. Republican Gregg Mele secured the GOP nomination with minimal opposition. Traders price the Democratic nominee as a heavy favorite ahead of the November 2026 general election because structural advantages in registration, turnout, and district composition have historically produced comfortable margins. A national Republican wave, significant candidate-specific scandal, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though such shifts would need to overcome entrenched local dynamics to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
交易量
$22,311結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean rooted in its demographics, voting patterns, and consistent performance in prior cycles. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman created an open seat that drew a crowded Democratic primary, which Adam Hamawy won in mid-2026 with a plurality against multiple challengers including elected officials and academics. Republican Gregg Mele secured the GOP nomination with minimal opposition. Traders price the Democratic nominee as a heavy favorite ahead of the November 2026 general election because structural advantages in registration, turnout, and district composition have historically produced comfortable margins. A national Republican wave, significant candidate-specific scandal, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though such shifts would need to overcome entrenched local dynamics to alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$22,311結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New Jersey's 12th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean rooted in its demographics, voting patterns, and consistent performance in prior cycles. The retirement of longtime incumbent Bonnie Watson Coleman created an open seat that drew a crowded Democratic primary, which Adam Hamawy won in mid-2026 with a plurality against multiple challengers including elected officials and academics. Republican Gregg Mele secured the GOP nomination with minimal opposition. Traders price the Democratic nominee as a heavy favorite ahead of the November 2026 general election because structural advantages in registration, turnout, and district composition have historically produced comfortable margins. A national Republican wave, significant candidate-specific scandal, or unusually low Democratic participation could narrow the gap, though such shifts would need to overcome entrenched local dynamics to alter the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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