Recent reports highlight mounting internal pressures and timeline slippage at OpenAI that underpin the 78.5% market-implied odds against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027. Chief financial officer Sarah Friar has flagged the original fourth-quarter 2026 target as overly aggressive amid heavy compute investments and revenue scaling challenges, creating friction with chief executive Sam Altman, while PitchBook analysis now points to a more realistic mid-to-late 2027 window. The company has reached roughly $25 billion in annualized revenue and continues refining its for-profit structure, yet no SEC filing has materialized as of mid-May 2026, and advisers emphasize that product launches, regulatory scrutiny of artificial intelligence models, and competitive positioning with rivals like Anthropic must align before any public debut. Traders are watching for confirmation of filing status or further executive statements as the key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$269,526 交易量
$269,526 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$269,526 交易量
$269,526 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Recent reports highlight mounting internal pressures and timeline slippage at OpenAI that underpin the 78.5% market-implied odds against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027. Chief financial officer Sarah Friar has flagged the original fourth-quarter 2026 target as overly aggressive amid heavy compute investments and revenue scaling challenges, creating friction with chief executive Sam Altman, while PitchBook analysis now points to a more realistic mid-to-late 2027 window. The company has reached roughly $25 billion in annualized revenue and continues refining its for-profit structure, yet no SEC filing has materialized as of mid-May 2026, and advisers emphasize that product launches, regulatory scrutiny of artificial intelligence models, and competitive positioning with rivals like Anthropic must align before any public debut. Traders are watching for confirmation of filing status or further executive statements as the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
交易量
$269,526結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.Recent reports highlight mounting internal pressures and timeline slippage at OpenAI that underpin the 78.5% market-implied odds against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027. Chief financial officer Sarah Friar has flagged the original fourth-quarter 2026 target as overly aggressive amid heavy compute investments and revenue scaling challenges, creating friction with chief executive Sam Altman, while PitchBook analysis now points to a more realistic mid-to-late 2027 window. The company has reached roughly $25 billion in annualized revenue and continues refining its for-profit structure, yet no SEC filing has materialized as of mid-May 2026, and advisers emphasize that product launches, regulatory scrutiny of artificial intelligence models, and competitive positioning with rivals like Anthropic must align before any public debut. Traders are watching for confirmation of filing status or further executive statements as the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
交易量
$269,526結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent reports highlight mounting internal pressures and timeline slippage at OpenAI that underpin the 78.5% market-implied odds against a $1 trillion-plus IPO before 2027. Chief financial officer Sarah Friar has flagged the original fourth-quarter 2026 target as overly aggressive amid heavy compute investments and revenue scaling challenges, creating friction with chief executive Sam Altman, while PitchBook analysis now points to a more realistic mid-to-late 2027 window. The company has reached roughly $25 billion in annualized revenue and continues refining its for-profit structure, yet no SEC filing has materialized as of mid-May 2026, and advisers emphasize that product launches, regulatory scrutiny of artificial intelligence models, and competitive positioning with rivals like Anthropic must align before any public debut. Traders are watching for confirmation of filing status or further executive statements as the key near-term catalysts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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