Recent polling averages for the November 29, 2026, Spanish general election project the PP at 36–39% in Almería, ahead of Vox at 28–29% and PSOE at 23–24%, translating to a central seat projection of PP 3, Vox 2, and PSOE 1 out of six deputies. This positioning reflects the PP’s established strength in Andalusia, sustained by regional governance priorities on agriculture, infrastructure, and water resources. Vox has gained ground nationally and locally, narrowing the gap on the final seat in some simulations while the left remains fragmented after Sumar’s withdrawal from the Frente Amplio coalition in the province. The PP’s consistent lead in provincial estimates underpins trader consensus on its plurality outcome, with the election 20 days away and no major late shifts reported in recent surveys.