Recent polls for Spain’s November 29 general election project the PNV at roughly 0.8–1.1% nationally and 3–5 seats, with several placing it at exactly 4 or 3. EH Bildu’s stronger showing in the Basque provinces—particularly Bizkaia and Gipuzkoa—has narrowed the PNV’s traditional margin in its core territory, raising the chance it falls short of the five seats needed for its own parliamentary group. The PNV’s campaign emphasizes defense of the Economic Agreement and self-government while rejecting any role in a PP-Vox majority, yet national polling averages show the right bloc on track for a clear majority. These dynamics have concentrated trader probability on 4 seats as the most likely single outcome, followed by fewer than 4.