**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 92.5% because full NRC licensing reviews for new commercial reactors remain lengthy even after recent reforms.** The agency finalized its technology-inclusive Part 53 framework in March 2026 and issued a construction permit for TerraPower’s Natrium advanced reactor earlier that year, while advancing applications for Holtec’s SMR-300 units at Palisades and X-energy’s Long Mott project. However, most projects are still in early stages—docketed applications, environmental assessments, or pre-hearing reviews—with mandatory hearings scheduled for September and a final safety evaluation targeted for November 2026. Historical precedents show complete cycles typically exceed the remaining months, and DOE pilot reactors operate under separate authority without counting as NRC licenses. A late-year approval for one or more SMR construction permits could shift odds if reviews accelerate as planned.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
8% 機率
$26,660 交易量
$26,660 交易量
2026-12-31
是
8% 機率
$26,660 交易量
$26,660 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 92.5% because full NRC licensing reviews for new commercial reactors remain lengthy even after recent reforms.** The agency finalized its technology-inclusive Part 53 framework in March 2026 and issued a construction permit for TerraPower’s Natrium advanced reactor earlier that year, while advancing applications for Holtec’s SMR-300 units at Palisades and X-energy’s Long Mott project. However, most projects are still in early stages—docketed applications, environmental assessments, or pre-hearing reviews—with mandatory hearings scheduled for September and a final safety evaluation targeted for November 2026. Historical precedents show complete cycles typically exceed the remaining months, and DOE pilot reactors operate under separate authority without counting as NRC licenses. A late-year approval for one or more SMR construction permits could shift odds if reviews accelerate as planned.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
交易量
$26,660結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 92.5% because full NRC licensing reviews for new commercial reactors remain lengthy even after recent reforms.** The agency finalized its technology-inclusive Part 53 framework in March 2026 and issued a construction permit for TerraPower’s Natrium advanced reactor earlier that year, while advancing applications for Holtec’s SMR-300 units at Palisades and X-energy’s Long Mott project. However, most projects are still in early stages—docketed applications, environmental assessments, or pre-hearing reviews—with mandatory hearings scheduled for September and a final safety evaluation targeted for November 2026. Historical precedents show complete cycles typically exceed the remaining months, and DOE pilot reactors operate under separate authority without counting as NRC licenses. A late-year approval for one or more SMR construction permits could shift odds if reviews accelerate as planned.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$26,660結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET**Trader consensus strongly favors "No" at 92.5% because full NRC licensing reviews for new commercial reactors remain lengthy even after recent reforms.** The agency finalized its technology-inclusive Part 53 framework in March 2026 and issued a construction permit for TerraPower’s Natrium advanced reactor earlier that year, while advancing applications for Holtec’s SMR-300 units at Palisades and X-energy’s Long Mott project. However, most projects are still in early stages—docketed applications, environmental assessments, or pre-hearing reviews—with mandatory hearings scheduled for September and a final safety evaluation targeted for November 2026. Historical precedents show complete cycles typically exceed the remaining months, and DOE pilot reactors operate under separate authority without counting as NRC licenses. A late-year approval for one or more SMR construction permits could shift odds if reviews accelerate as planned.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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