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icon for 美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？
科技·特朗普

美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？

icon for 美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？
科技·特朗普

美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？

是

8% 機率
Polymarket

$26,660 交易量

是

8% 機率
Polymarket

$26,660 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Strong trader consensus on "No" (92.5% implied probability) reflects the extended timelines for full NRC licensing of new commercial nuclear reactors, even amid accelerated policy support.** As of mid-September 2026, recent activity centers on restarts of shuttered plants (such as Palisades and Duane Arnold with DOE financing), DOE-authorized test reactors reaching criticality earlier in the year, and limited early-site exemptions rather than complete construction or operating licenses. Holtec secured an August 2026 NRC exemption for initial excavation and ground work on its SMR-300 units at Palisades, but this falls short of a full construction permit or combined license. While TerraPower received a construction permit for its Natrium project in March 2026—the first for a commercial non-light-water design—broader new-reactor approvals continue to face multi-year safety, environmental, and technical reviews. NRC proposals in September 2026 for regulatory modernization, risk-informed standards, and streamlined hearings aim to shorten timelines toward an 18-month target, yet these changes are projected to take effect well into 2027. Pending applications (including X-energy Xe-100 and Holtec SMR-300) remain in active review without imminent full resolutions. Traders view the remaining months of 2026 as insufficient for another complete license given historical precedent and the need for mandatory hearings, environmental assessments, and safety evaluations. A realistic challenge to this view would require an unexpectedly rapid final approval on one of the advanced dockets before year-end, driven by further executive actions or expedited rulemaking.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$26,660
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Strong trader consensus on "No" (92.5% implied probability) reflects the extended timelines for full NRC licensing of new commercial nuclear reactors, even amid accelerated policy support.** As of mid-September 2026, recent activity centers on restarts of shuttered plants (such as Palisades and Duane Arnold with DOE financing), DOE-authorized test reactors reaching criticality earlier in the year, and limited early-site exemptions rather than complete construction or operating licenses. Holtec secured an August 2026 NRC exemption for initial excavation and ground work on its SMR-300 units at Palisades, but this falls short of a full construction permit or combined license. While TerraPower received a construction permit for its Natrium project in March 2026—the first for a commercial non-light-water design—broader new-reactor approvals continue to face multi-year safety, environmental, and technical reviews. NRC proposals in September 2026 for regulatory modernization, risk-informed standards, and streamlined hearings aim to shorten timelines toward an 18-month target, yet these changes are projected to take effect well into 2027. Pending applications (including X-energy Xe-100 and Holtec SMR-300) remain in active review without imminent full resolutions. Traders view the remaining months of 2026 as insufficient for another complete license given historical precedent and the need for mandatory hearings, environmental assessments, and safety evaluations. A realistic challenge to this view would require an unexpectedly rapid final approval on one of the advanced dockets before year-end, driven by further executive actions or expedited rulemaking.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issues a new combined license (COL) for the construction and operation of a nuclear power plant by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A combined license must be clearly identified as such and documented in official NRC releases. Only initial issuances count; amendments, renewals, or partial approvals do not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$26,660
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jan 26, 2026, 4:48 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "美國批准2026年新核反應爐許可？" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？" has generated $26.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 26, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？" is "美國批准2026年新核反應爐許可？" at just 8%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "美國在2026年授予新核反應爐的許可證？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.