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icon for 萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統？
政治·JD

萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統？

icon for 萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統？
政治·JD

萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統？

是

6% 機率
Polymarket

$18,813 交易量

是

6% 機率
Polymarket

$18,813 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice. Vice President JD Vance has repeatedly stated he will not decide on a 2028 presidential bid until after the November 2026 midterms, when he plans to discuss the matter with his wife, and has emphasized focusing on his current role and Republican midterm success rather than future ambitions. As of September 2026, he continues to appear at party events, deliver speeches building support among the MAGA base, and promote his profile without signaling any intent to rule out a run. Trump has offered private encouragement for a Vance candidacy while keeping public options open among potential successors. These patterns, with formal announcements typically occurring in 2027, underpin trader consensus that Vance will not announce he is out of the 2028 race this year.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
交易量
$18,813
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice. Vice President JD Vance has repeatedly stated he will not decide on a 2028 presidential bid until after the November 2026 midterms, when he plans to discuss the matter with his wife, and has emphasized focusing on his current role and Republican midterm success rather than future ambitions. As of September 2026, he continues to appear at party events, deliver speeches building support among the MAGA base, and promote his profile without signaling any intent to rule out a run. Trump has offered private encouragement for a Vance candidacy while keeping public options open among potential successors. These patterns, with formal announcements typically occurring in 2027, underpin trader consensus that Vance will not announce he is out of the 2028 race this year.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if JD Vance announces that he will not run for President of the United States in the 2028 United States Presidential election between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying announcement must definitively indicate that Vance will not run for President in 2028, or will never run for President. Statements that Vance has not made a decision on whether to run will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from JD Vance or his official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
交易量
$18,813
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
May 27, 2026, 12:43 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "范斯宣布他今年不會在2028年參選總統？" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 6¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 6% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統？" has generated $18.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統？" is "范斯宣布他今年不會在2028年參選總統？" at just 6%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "萬斯宣布他不會在今年競選2028年的總統？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.