Trader sentiment on Claude downtime days in May reflects a closely contested race between 12+ days (39%) and 6-8 days (37%), fueled by nine confirmed incidents through May 15 on Anthropic's status page, including elevated errors on Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 models early on the 15th. Rapid deployments of iterative large language models like Opus 4.5-4.7 have strained infrastructure, causing frequent partial outages on days like May 4, 6-9, 12-14—often tied to capacity limits and GitHub connectivity issues amid aggressive scaling to challenge OpenAI's GPT and xAI's Grok. Key differentiators include Claude's higher error rates versus competitors' stability, with swing factors hinging on remaining 16 days: successful fixes could cap at 9-11 (30%), but recurring patterns imply escalation risks before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於6-8 38.0%
12+ 31%
9-11 30%
3-5 16.3%
$33,491 交易量
$33,491 交易量
2026-05-31
3-5
14%
6-8
38%
9-11
30%
12+
33%
6-8 38.0%
12+ 31%
9-11 30%
3-5 16.3%
$33,491 交易量
$33,491 交易量
2026-05-31
3-5
$3,858 交易量
14%
6-8
$1,093 交易量
38%
9-11
$659 交易量
30%
12+
$4,982 交易量
33%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader sentiment on Claude downtime days in May reflects a closely contested race between 12+ days (39%) and 6-8 days (37%), fueled by nine confirmed incidents through May 15 on Anthropic's status page, including elevated errors on Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 models early on the 15th. Rapid deployments of iterative large language models like Opus 4.5-4.7 have strained infrastructure, causing frequent partial outages on days like May 4, 6-9, 12-14—often tied to capacity limits and GitHub connectivity issues amid aggressive scaling to challenge OpenAI's GPT and xAI's Grok. Key differentiators include Claude's higher error rates versus competitors' stability, with swing factors hinging on remaining 16 days: successful fixes could cap at 9-11 (30%), but recurring patterns imply escalation risks before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
市場開放時間： Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
交易量
$33,491結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader sentiment on Claude downtime days in May reflects a closely contested race between 12+ days (39%) and 6-8 days (37%), fueled by nine confirmed incidents through May 15 on Anthropic's status page, including elevated errors on Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 models early on the 15th. Rapid deployments of iterative large language models like Opus 4.5-4.7 have strained infrastructure, causing frequent partial outages on days like May 4, 6-9, 12-14—often tied to capacity limits and GitHub connectivity issues amid aggressive scaling to challenge OpenAI's GPT and xAI's Grok. Key differentiators include Claude's higher error rates versus competitors' stability, with swing factors hinging on remaining 16 days: successful fixes could cap at 9-11 (30%), but recurring patterns imply escalation risks before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
交易量
$33,491結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Claude downtime days in May reflects a closely contested race between 12+ days (39%) and 6-8 days (37%), fueled by nine confirmed incidents through May 15 on Anthropic's status page, including elevated errors on Opus 4.7 and Sonnet 4.6 models early on the 15th. Rapid deployments of iterative large language models like Opus 4.5-4.7 have strained infrastructure, causing frequent partial outages on days like May 4, 6-9, 12-14—often tied to capacity limits and GitHub connectivity issues amid aggressive scaling to challenge OpenAI's GPT and xAI's Grok. Key differentiators include Claude's higher error rates versus competitors' stability, with swing factors hinging on remaining 16 days: successful fixes could cap at 9-11 (30%), but recurring patterns imply escalation risks before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions