Republicans face elevated risk of losing at least one House seat in states Trump carried in 2024 because numerous GOP-held districts there rank among the most competitive for the November 2026 midterms. Forecasters have shifted multiple races toward Democrats following polling that shows the party out of power leading on the generic ballot, combined with low presidential approval and economic concerns. Mid-decade redistricting in several Trump-won states created some additional Republican-leaning seats, yet analysts still project net Democratic gains overall. Historical patterns reinforce the outlook, as the president's party has lost House seats in nearly every midterm since World War II. Traders assign 97.7% probability to a Republican loss somewhere in this group because dozens of exposed districts make a clean sweep improbable. Late polling shifts, turnout surges in specific states, or unforeseen candidate events remain the main variables that could still alter the result.