The Islamic Republic’s institutional continuity under Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC backing has kept Reza Pahlavi’s path to leadership blocked despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Swift succession in March, combined with ongoing repression and the absence of widespread military defections or mass uprisings, has reinforced regime resilience through mid-May. Pahlavi’s public positioning as a transitional figure, European diplomatic outreach, and repeated calls for external support have not translated into verifiable domestic momentum or control of state institutions. Traders therefore price the 2026 outcome as highly unlikely, reflecting the structural barriers posed by entrenched security forces and fragmented opposition that have persisted amid stalled negotiations and regional tensions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,748,624 交易量
$1,748,624 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,748,624 交易量
$1,748,624 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic’s institutional continuity under Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC backing has kept Reza Pahlavi’s path to leadership blocked despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Swift succession in March, combined with ongoing repression and the absence of widespread military defections or mass uprisings, has reinforced regime resilience through mid-May. Pahlavi’s public positioning as a transitional figure, European diplomatic outreach, and repeated calls for external support have not translated into verifiable domestic momentum or control of state institutions. Traders therefore price the 2026 outcome as highly unlikely, reflecting the structural barriers posed by entrenched security forces and fragmented opposition that have persisted amid stalled negotiations and regional tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ET
交易量
$1,748,624結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The Islamic Republic’s institutional continuity under Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC backing has kept Reza Pahlavi’s path to leadership blocked despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Swift succession in March, combined with ongoing repression and the absence of widespread military defections or mass uprisings, has reinforced regime resilience through mid-May. Pahlavi’s public positioning as a transitional figure, European diplomatic outreach, and repeated calls for external support have not translated into verifiable domestic momentum or control of state institutions. Traders therefore price the 2026 outcome as highly unlikely, reflecting the structural barriers posed by entrenched security forces and fragmented opposition that have persisted amid stalled negotiations and regional tensions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.
Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify.
If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,748,624結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 10:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic’s institutional continuity under Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC backing has kept Reza Pahlavi’s path to leadership blocked despite Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 death in U.S.-Israeli strikes. Swift succession in March, combined with ongoing repression and the absence of widespread military defections or mass uprisings, has reinforced regime resilience through mid-May. Pahlavi’s public positioning as a transitional figure, European diplomatic outreach, and repeated calls for external support have not translated into verifiable domestic momentum or control of state institutions. Traders therefore price the 2026 outcome as highly unlikely, reflecting the structural barriers posed by entrenched security forces and fragmented opposition that have persisted amid stalled negotiations and regional tensions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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