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icon for 習近平在2027年之前出局？
地緣政治·世界事務

習近平在2027年之前出局？

icon for 習近平在2027年之前出局？
地緣政治·世界事務

習近平在2027年之前出局？

12月 31

12月 31

是

5% 機率
Polymarket

$12,084,796 交易量

是

5% 機率
Polymarket

$12,084,796 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party, state institutions, and military apparatus as of mid-2026, with no verified signs of imminent removal or forced retirement before the end of the year. He continues to lead diplomatic engagements, issue public directives on economic planning, and oversee personnel decisions ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, where analysts widely anticipate a fourth term extending his tenure at least to 2032. Periodic rumors of health issues, elite factionalism, or military purges have surfaced but lack substantiation from official sources and have not altered his public role or authority. Trader consensus at 95.5% for “No” reflects this structural stability and the absence of any scheduled leadership transition mechanism. Unexpected developments such as a severe health event, abrupt elite realignment, or major policy failure could still introduce volatility, though none appear imminent based on current evidence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$12,084,796
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 3, 2025, 4:35 PM ET

結算方

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping maintains firm control over the Chinese Communist Party, state institutions, and military apparatus as of mid-2026, with no verified signs of imminent removal or forced retirement before the end of the year. He continues to lead diplomatic engagements, issue public directives on economic planning, and oversee personnel decisions ahead of the 2027 Party Congress, where analysts widely anticipate a fourth term extending his tenure at least to 2032. Periodic rumors of health issues, elite factionalism, or military purges have surfaced but lack substantiation from official sources and have not altered his public role or authority. Trader consensus at 95.5% for “No” reflects this structural stability and the absence of any scheduled leadership transition mechanism. Unexpected developments such as a severe health event, abrupt elite realignment, or major policy failure could still introduce volatility, though none appear imminent based on current evidence.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$12,084,796
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 3, 2025, 4:35 PM ET

結算方

0x157Ce2d67...

We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China's General Secretary of the Communist Party, Xi Jinping, is removed from power for any length of time between July 3, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". CCP General Secretary Xi Jinping will be considered removed from power if he announces his resignation from his role as General Secretary, or is otherwise dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from fulfilling his duties as General Secretary within this market's timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"習近平在2027年之前出局？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "習近平在2027年前下台？" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "習近平在2027年之前出局？" has generated $12.1 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 3, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "習近平在2027年之前出局？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "習近平在2027年之前出局？" is "習近平在2027年前下台？" at just 4%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "習近平在2027年之前出局？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.