Claude Opus 5 Max dominates trader sentiment for the best AI model on August 17, 2026, following its July 24 release as Anthropic’s strongest Opus-tier large language model. It delivers state-of-the-art results on coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks such as Frontier-Bench and OSWorld 2.0—often matching or exceeding Fable 5 performance at half the cost—while serving as the default on Claude Max with a 1-million-token context window. This rapid adoption and consistent outperformance over Opus 4.8 and competing frontier systems underpin the near-certain market odds. A sudden release of a new model like GPT-6 or major benchmark revisions favoring another system remain the primary realistic challenges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于claude-opus-5-max 98.8%
claude-opus-5-high 1.1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
其他 <1%
$37,647 交易量
$37,647 交易量
2026-08-17
claude-opus-5-max
99%
claude-opus-5-high
1%
claude-fable-5
<1%
其他
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
<1%
claude-opus-4-6
<1%
claude-opus-5-max 98.8%
claude-opus-5-high 1.1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
其他 <1%
$37,647 交易量
$37,647 交易量
2026-08-17
claude-opus-5-max
$20,612 交易量
99%
claude-opus-5-high
$2,467 交易量
1%
claude-fable-5
$3,656 交易量
<1%
其他
$2,956 交易量
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$6,713 交易量
<1%
claude-opus-4-6
$1,243 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5 Max dominates trader sentiment for the best AI model on August 17, 2026, following its July 24 release as Anthropic’s strongest Opus-tier large language model. It delivers state-of-the-art results on coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks such as Frontier-Bench and OSWorld 2.0—often matching or exceeding Fable 5 performance at half the cost—while serving as the default on Claude Max with a 1-million-token context window. This rapid adoption and consistent outperformance over Opus 4.8 and competing frontier systems underpin the near-certain market odds. A sudden release of a new model like GPT-6 or major benchmark revisions favoring another system remain the primary realistic challenges.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市场开放时间： Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$37,647结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Opus 5 Max dominates trader sentiment for the best AI model on August 17, 2026, following its July 24 release as Anthropic’s strongest Opus-tier large language model. It delivers state-of-the-art results on coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks such as Frontier-Bench and OSWorld 2.0—often matching or exceeding Fable 5 performance at half the cost—while serving as the default on Claude Max with a 1-million-token context window. This rapid adoption and consistent outperformance over Opus 4.8 and competing frontier systems underpin the near-certain market odds. A sudden release of a new model like GPT-6 or major benchmark revisions favoring another system remain the primary realistic challenges.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$37,647结束日期
2026-08-17市场开放时间
Jul 31, 2026, 6:04 PM ETClaude Opus 5 Max dominates trader sentiment for the best AI model on August 17, 2026, following its July 24 release as Anthropic’s strongest Opus-tier large language model. It delivers state-of-the-art results on coding, agentic reasoning, and knowledge-work benchmarks such as Frontier-Bench and OSWorld 2.0—often matching or exceeding Fable 5 performance at half the cost—while serving as the default on Claude Max with a 1-million-token context window. This rapid adoption and consistent outperformance over Opus 4.8 and competing frontier systems underpin the near-certain market odds. A sudden release of a new model like GPT-6 or major benchmark revisions favoring another system remain the primary realistic challenges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题