Traders assign a 96.9% probability that Bill Gates will not face criminal charges by June 30, driven by the complete absence of any announced federal investigations, indictments, or official statements from the Department of Justice. No pending legal actions or credible prosecutorial signals exist against the Microsoft co-founder as of mid-May 2026. While Bill Gates has encountered civil litigation and public allegations in prior years, these matters have not produced criminal proceedings. The brief remaining window until resolution further limits the scope for sudden developments. Shifts remain possible only through unforeseen events such as new evidence in separate cases or rapid executive branch actions, though such rapid escalations lack historical precedent without prior public indicators.