Trader consensus prices Oliver Adams Larkin slightly ahead of incumbent Jared Moskowitz at 35% to 33.5% implied probability for the August 18 FL-23 Democratic primary, reflecting Larkin's surge from late April endorsements by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democratic Socialists of America chapters in South Florida. These bolster progressive turnout amid Larkin's attacks on Moskowitz's AIPAC ties and unconditional Israel aid, contrasting his push for Medicare for All, $25 minimum wage, and Green New Deal. A March internal poll showed Moskowitz leading 45%-11%, but traders weigh low-turnout primary dynamics and district's D+2 lean favoring incumbency unless new polls, debates, or Q2 fundraising shifts momentum before summer filing deadlines passed April 24.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$20,744 交易量
$20,744 交易量
2026-08-18
贾里德·莫斯科维茨
35%
奥利弗·亚当斯·拉金
30%
$20,744 交易量
$20,744 交易量
2026-08-18
贾里德·莫斯科维茨
$9,579 交易量
35%
奥利弗·亚当斯·拉金
$11,164 交易量
30%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus prices Oliver Adams Larkin slightly ahead of incumbent Jared Moskowitz at 35% to 33.5% implied probability for the August 18 FL-23 Democratic primary, reflecting Larkin's surge from late April endorsements by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democratic Socialists of America chapters in South Florida. These bolster progressive turnout amid Larkin's attacks on Moskowitz's AIPAC ties and unconditional Israel aid, contrasting his push for Medicare for All, $25 minimum wage, and Green New Deal. A March internal poll showed Moskowitz leading 45%-11%, but traders weigh low-turnout primary dynamics and district's D+2 lean favoring incumbency unless new polls, debates, or Q2 fundraising shifts momentum before summer filing deadlines passed April 24.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ET
交易量
$20,744结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus prices Oliver Adams Larkin slightly ahead of incumbent Jared Moskowitz at 35% to 33.5% implied probability for the August 18 FL-23 Democratic primary, reflecting Larkin's surge from late April endorsements by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democratic Socialists of America chapters in South Florida. These bolster progressive turnout amid Larkin's attacks on Moskowitz's AIPAC ties and unconditional Israel aid, contrasting his push for Medicare for All, $25 minimum wage, and Green New Deal. A March internal poll showed Moskowitz leading 45%-11%, but traders weigh low-turnout primary dynamics and district's D+2 lean favoring incumbency unless new polls, debates, or Q2 fundraising shifts momentum before summer filing deadlines passed April 24.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 18, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$20,744结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Dec 19, 2025, 2:12 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices Oliver Adams Larkin slightly ahead of incumbent Jared Moskowitz at 35% to 33.5% implied probability for the August 18 FL-23 Democratic primary, reflecting Larkin's surge from late April endorsements by the Progressive Change Campaign Committee and Democratic Socialists of America chapters in South Florida. These bolster progressive turnout amid Larkin's attacks on Moskowitz's AIPAC ties and unconditional Israel aid, contrasting his push for Medicare for All, $25 minimum wage, and Green New Deal. A March internal poll showed Moskowitz leading 45%-11%, but traders weigh low-turnout primary dynamics and district's D+2 lean favoring incumbency unless new polls, debates, or Q2 fundraising shifts momentum before summer filing deadlines passed April 24.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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