Kendall Qualls holds the lead in the Minnesota Republican primary market after securing the party endorsement at the late-May state convention following a 10-ballot contest against House Speaker Lisa Demuth. The endorsement, backed by delegates and party infrastructure, underpins trader consensus on his frontrunner status ahead of the August 11 primary. Demuth reversed her prior pledge to exit and filed for the primary on June 2, citing convention voting irregularities, while Mike Lindell also entered, creating a three-way race that has introduced volatility. Recent public polling shows Lindell ahead in some surveys, reflecting his name recognition and base support, yet the endorsement advantage and Qualls’s established campaign organization sustain his pricing edge over Demuth and the rest of the field.