Recent short-term forecast model runs for Beijing highlight uncertainty from East Asian monsoon influences and potential thunderstorm development on July 3, keeping the daily maximum temperature distribution tightly clustered around 35–37 °C. Official guidance notes typical early-July highs near 31–33 °C, but variable cloud cover, humidity levels above 70 %, and urban heat-island effects can push peaks several degrees higher if daytime heating strengthens before storms develop. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 36 °C and 38 °C outcomes most heavily, reflecting sensitivity to small shifts in steering patterns or convective timing that could either suppress or enhance the maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated model consensus expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Beijing on July 3?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 3?
36°C 40%
37°C 30%
38°C 14.0%
35°C 14%
最新
$33,143 交易量
最新
$33,143 交易量
2026-07-03
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
1%
34°C
1%
35°C
14%
36°C
40%
37°C
30%
38°C
14%
39°C
5%
40°C or higher
1%
36°C 40%
37°C 30%
38°C 14.0%
35°C 14%
最新
$33,143 交易量
最新
$33,143 交易量
2026-07-03
30°C or below
$7,349 交易量
<1%
31°C
$2,113 交易量
<1%
32°C
$1,489 交易量
<1%
33°C
$1,520 交易量
1%
34°C
$2,164 交易量
1%
35°C
$1,247 交易量
14%
36°C
$6,191 交易量
40%
37°C
$2,433 交易量
30%
38°C
$2,257 交易量
14%
39°C
$1,883 交易量
5%
40°C or higher
$4,497 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecast model runs for Beijing highlight uncertainty from East Asian monsoon influences and potential thunderstorm development on July 3, keeping the daily maximum temperature distribution tightly clustered around 35–37 °C. Official guidance notes typical early-July highs near 31–33 °C, but variable cloud cover, humidity levels above 70 %, and urban heat-island effects can push peaks several degrees higher if daytime heating strengthens before storms develop. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 36 °C and 38 °C outcomes most heavily, reflecting sensitivity to small shifts in steering patterns or convective timing that could either suppress or enhance the maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated model consensus expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$33,143结束日期
2026-07-03市场开放时间
Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecast model runs for Beijing highlight uncertainty from East Asian monsoon influences and potential thunderstorm development on July 3, keeping the daily maximum temperature distribution tightly clustered around 35–37 °C. Official guidance notes typical early-July highs near 31–33 °C, but variable cloud cover, humidity levels above 70 %, and urban heat-island effects can push peaks several degrees higher if daytime heating strengthens before storms develop. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 36 °C and 38 °C outcomes most heavily, reflecting sensitivity to small shifts in steering patterns or convective timing that could either suppress or enhance the maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated model consensus expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$33,143结束日期
2026-07-03市场开放时间
Jul 1, 2026, 12:03 AM ETRecent short-term forecast model runs for Beijing highlight uncertainty from East Asian monsoon influences and potential thunderstorm development on July 3, keeping the daily maximum temperature distribution tightly clustered around 35–37 °C. Official guidance notes typical early-July highs near 31–33 °C, but variable cloud cover, humidity levels above 70 %, and urban heat-island effects can push peaks several degrees higher if daytime heating strengthens before storms develop. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 36 °C and 38 °C outcomes most heavily, reflecting sensitivity to small shifts in steering patterns or convective timing that could either suppress or enhance the maximum by 1–2 °C. Updated model consensus expected within 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题