**Forecast consensus from official and meteorological sources positions 26°C as the most likely high for Madrid on September 17, 2026, followed closely by 27°C.** Multiple models and agencies, including AEMET-aligned reports and international forecasts (GFS, Met Office), project a daytime maximum near 26.3°C under partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds of 8–13 km/h, and negligible precipitation risk (around 2%). This aligns with the long-term September 17 average high of 26.2°C recorded at Madrid stations. Key scientific drivers include Madrid’s continental Mediterranean climate, where late-summer insolation remains strong but begins to wane, combined with stable high-pressure conditions that limit cloud cover and mixing. Low humidity (around 30–50%) and moderate winds from the northeast help cap extremes, keeping temperatures near climatological norms rather than pushing into heatwave territory. Recent observations from the prior evening showed regional highs of 25–28°C with similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing model stability. Trader-implied probabilities (51.5% for 26°C, 31.5% for 27°C) reflect this tight consensus, with lower odds on 25°C or 28°C accounting for minor forecast spread typical in ensemble runs. No significant updates—such as revised model runs or incoming fronts—have altered the outlook in the last 24–48 hours, supporting the market’s focus on these two outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月17日马德里气温最高？
9月17日马德里气温最高？
26°C 54%
27°C 33%
25°C 7%
28°C 3%
$32,577 交易量
$32,577 交易量
2026-09-17
21°C或以下
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
7%
26°C
54%
27°C
33%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C或更高
<1%
26°C 54%
27°C 33%
25°C 7%
28°C 3%
$32,577 交易量
$32,577 交易量
2026-09-17
21°C或以下
$863 交易量
<1%
22°C
$1,440 交易量
<1%
23°C
$568 交易量
1%
24°C
$514 交易量
1%
25°C
$4,578 交易量
7%
26°C
$7,566 交易量
54%
27°C
$6,270 交易量
33%
28°C
$7,686 交易量
3%
29°C
$1,380 交易量
1%
30°C
$369 交易量
<1%
31°C或更高
$1,342 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official and meteorological sources positions 26°C as the most likely high for Madrid on September 17, 2026, followed closely by 27°C.** Multiple models and agencies, including AEMET-aligned reports and international forecasts (GFS, Met Office), project a daytime maximum near 26.3°C under partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds of 8–13 km/h, and negligible precipitation risk (around 2%). This aligns with the long-term September 17 average high of 26.2°C recorded at Madrid stations.
Key scientific drivers include Madrid’s continental Mediterranean climate, where late-summer insolation remains strong but begins to wane, combined with stable high-pressure conditions that limit cloud cover and mixing. Low humidity (around 30–50%) and moderate winds from the northeast help cap extremes, keeping temperatures near climatological norms rather than pushing into heatwave territory. Recent observations from the prior evening showed regional highs of 25–28°C with similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing model stability.
Trader-implied probabilities (51.5% for 26°C, 31.5% for 27°C) reflect this tight consensus, with lower odds on 25°C or 28°C accounting for minor forecast spread typical in ensemble runs. No significant updates—such as revised model runs or incoming fronts—have altered the outlook in the last 24–48 hours, supporting the market’s focus on these two outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$32,577结束日期
2026-09-17市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from official and meteorological sources positions 26°C as the most likely high for Madrid on September 17, 2026, followed closely by 27°C.** Multiple models and agencies, including AEMET-aligned reports and international forecasts (GFS, Met Office), project a daytime maximum near 26.3°C under partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds of 8–13 km/h, and negligible precipitation risk (around 2%). This aligns with the long-term September 17 average high of 26.2°C recorded at Madrid stations.
Key scientific drivers include Madrid’s continental Mediterranean climate, where late-summer insolation remains strong but begins to wane, combined with stable high-pressure conditions that limit cloud cover and mixing. Low humidity (around 30–50%) and moderate winds from the northeast help cap extremes, keeping temperatures near climatological norms rather than pushing into heatwave territory. Recent observations from the prior evening showed regional highs of 25–28°C with similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing model stability.
Trader-implied probabilities (51.5% for 26°C, 31.5% for 27°C) reflect this tight consensus, with lower odds on 25°C or 28°C accounting for minor forecast spread typical in ensemble runs. No significant updates—such as revised model runs or incoming fronts—have altered the outlook in the last 24–48 hours, supporting the market’s focus on these two outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$32,577结束日期
2026-09-17市场开放时间
Sep 15, 2026, 12:57 AM ET**Forecast consensus from official and meteorological sources positions 26°C as the most likely high for Madrid on September 17, 2026, followed closely by 27°C.** Multiple models and agencies, including AEMET-aligned reports and international forecasts (GFS, Met Office), project a daytime maximum near 26.3°C under partly cloudy skies, light northeasterly winds of 8–13 km/h, and negligible precipitation risk (around 2%). This aligns with the long-term September 17 average high of 26.2°C recorded at Madrid stations. Key scientific drivers include Madrid’s continental Mediterranean climate, where late-summer insolation remains strong but begins to wane, combined with stable high-pressure conditions that limit cloud cover and mixing. Low humidity (around 30–50%) and moderate winds from the northeast help cap extremes, keeping temperatures near climatological norms rather than pushing into heatwave territory. Recent observations from the prior evening showed regional highs of 25–28°C with similar synoptic patterns, reinforcing model stability. Trader-implied probabilities (51.5% for 26°C, 31.5% for 27°C) reflect this tight consensus, with lower odds on 25°C or 28°C accounting for minor forecast spread typical in ensemble runs. No significant updates—such as revised model runs or incoming fronts—have altered the outlook in the last 24–48 hours, supporting the market’s focus on these two outcomes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题