Southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions, with frequent afternoon convective activity and variable cloud cover, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 32°C (30.5%) and 33°C (28.5%) for Manila's July 17 maximum. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicate a baseline high near 32°C amid typical July humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peak heating by several degrees depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology places Manila July maxima around 31°C, but urban heat-island effects and short-term fluctuations in insolation create the narrow spread across 31–34°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the leading probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月17日马尼拉的最高温度？
7月17日马尼拉的最高温度？
33°C 36%
32°C 34%
31°C 18%
34°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-07-17
27°C或以下
1%
28°C
1%
29°C
8%
30°C
10%
31°C
18%
32°C
34%
33°C
36%
34°C
14%
35°C
3%
36°C
1%
37°C或更高
1%
33°C 36%
32°C 34%
31°C 18%
34°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-07-17
27°C或以下
$261 交易量
1%
28°C
$10 交易量
1%
29°C
$103 交易量
8%
30°C
$0 交易量
10%
31°C
$50 交易量
18%
32°C
$13 交易量
34%
33°C
$13 交易量
36%
34°C
$0 交易量
14%
35°C
$15 交易量
3%
36°C
$27 交易量
1%
37°C或更高
$15 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions, with frequent afternoon convective activity and variable cloud cover, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 32°C (30.5%) and 33°C (28.5%) for Manila's July 17 maximum. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicate a baseline high near 32°C amid typical July humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peak heating by several degrees depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology places Manila July maxima around 31°C, but urban heat-island effects and short-term fluctuations in insolation create the narrow spread across 31–34°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the leading probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$506结束日期
2026-07-17市场开放时间
Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Southwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions, with frequent afternoon convective activity and variable cloud cover, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 32°C (30.5%) and 33°C (28.5%) for Manila's July 17 maximum. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicate a baseline high near 32°C amid typical July humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peak heating by several degrees depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology places Manila July maxima around 31°C, but urban heat-island effects and short-term fluctuations in insolation create the narrow spread across 31–34°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the leading probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$506结束日期
2026-07-17市场开放时间
Jul 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETSouthwest monsoon (Habagat) conditions, with frequent afternoon convective activity and variable cloud cover, are the main driver keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between 32°C (30.5%) and 33°C (28.5%) for Manila's July 17 maximum. PAGASA guidance and ensemble models indicate a baseline high near 32°C amid typical July humidity and scattered showers or thunderstorms that can suppress peak heating by several degrees depending on timing and coverage. Historical climatology places Manila July maxima around 31°C, but urban heat-island effects and short-term fluctuations in insolation create the narrow spread across 31–34°C outcomes. Updated model runs and official forecasts over the next 48 hours will likely resolve the leading probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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