**Short-term forecast models from MetService and international sources currently point to a daytime maximum near 15°C for Wellington on July 16, 2026, under light southerly to southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover.** Climatologically, July highs average 12–13°C, so this represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the seasonal outlook from NIWA, which assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15°C (43.5%) and 16°C (37%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise peak: small differences in frontal timing, insolation, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1°C. Model consensus favors stabilization around 14–16°C rather than colder outbreaks or unseasonable warmth, with resolution depending on the official MetService observation for the day’s highest temperature. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月16日惠灵顿的最高温度？
7月16日惠灵顿的最高温度？
15°C 68%
16°C 18%
14°C 5.5%
17°C 4.5%
最新
$19,356 交易量
最新
$19,356 交易量
2026-07-16
10°C或以下
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
6%
15°C
68%
16°C
18%
17°C
5%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C或更高
<1%
15°C 68%
16°C 18%
14°C 5.5%
17°C 4.5%
最新
$19,356 交易量
最新
$19,356 交易量
2026-07-16
10°C或以下
$491 交易量
<1%
11°C
$694 交易量
<1%
12°C
$617 交易量
<1%
13°C
$1,135 交易量
<1%
14°C
$2,563 交易量
6%
15°C
$5,124 交易量
68%
16°C
$4,870 交易量
18%
17°C
$2,129 交易量
5%
18°C
$801 交易量
<1%
19°C
$586 交易量
<1%
20°C或更高
$346 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast models from MetService and international sources currently point to a daytime maximum near 15°C for Wellington on July 16, 2026, under light southerly to southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover.**
Climatologically, July highs average 12–13°C, so this represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the seasonal outlook from NIWA, which assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15°C (43.5%) and 16°C (37%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise peak: small differences in frontal timing, insolation, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1°C.
Model consensus favors stabilization around 14–16°C rather than colder outbreaks or unseasonable warmth, with resolution depending on the official MetService observation for the day’s highest temperature. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$19,356结束日期
2026-07-16市场开放时间
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-term forecast models from MetService and international sources currently point to a daytime maximum near 15°C for Wellington on July 16, 2026, under light southerly to southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover.**
Climatologically, July highs average 12–13°C, so this represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the seasonal outlook from NIWA, which assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15°C (43.5%) and 16°C (37%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise peak: small differences in frontal timing, insolation, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1°C.
Model consensus favors stabilization around 14–16°C rather than colder outbreaks or unseasonable warmth, with resolution depending on the official MetService observation for the day’s highest temperature. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$19,356结束日期
2026-07-16市场开放时间
Jul 14, 2026, 12:02 AM ET**Short-term forecast models from MetService and international sources currently point to a daytime maximum near 15°C for Wellington on July 16, 2026, under light southerly to southwesterly flow and variable cloud cover.** Climatologically, July highs average 12–13°C, so this represents a modest positive anomaly consistent with the seasonal outlook from NIWA, which assigns roughly equal chances of near-average or below-average temperatures through the period. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15°C (43.5%) and 16°C (37%), reflecting genuine uncertainty in the precise peak: small differences in frontal timing, insolation, or wind strength can shift the maximum by 1°C. Model consensus favors stabilization around 14–16°C rather than colder outbreaks or unseasonable warmth, with resolution depending on the official MetService observation for the day’s highest temperature. Updated runs in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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