The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.86%, has climbed sharply from year-ago levels near 3.6% amid the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range and updated projections signaling a more hawkish path. Persistent inflation—August CPI near 3.4% and core PCE around 3.3%—combined with resilient growth, a solid labor market, and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions have lifted real yields and term premiums. Heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns are also widening the compensation investors demand for duration. With the next FOMC meeting set for late October and upcoming CPI, employment, and GDP releases, markets are repricing the likelihood of rates staying higher for longer, supporting further upside pressure on the 5-year benchmark through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$25,169 交易量
2026-12-30
5.25%
21%
5.10%
66%
5.00%
61%
4.95%
72%
4.90%
86%
$25,169 交易量
5.25%
$4,040 交易量
21%
5.10%
$6,812 交易量
66%
5.00%
$5,352 交易量
61%
4.95%
$1,186 交易量
72%
4.90%
$1,858 交易量
86%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.86%, has climbed sharply from year-ago levels near 3.6% amid the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range and updated projections signaling a more hawkish path. Persistent inflation—August CPI near 3.4% and core PCE around 3.3%—combined with resilient growth, a solid labor market, and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions have lifted real yields and term premiums. Heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns are also widening the compensation investors demand for duration. With the next FOMC meeting set for late October and upcoming CPI, employment, and GDP releases, markets are repricing the likelihood of rates staying higher for longer, supporting further upside pressure on the 5-year benchmark through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$25,169结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.86%, has climbed sharply from year-ago levels near 3.6% amid the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range and updated projections signaling a more hawkish path. Persistent inflation—August CPI near 3.4% and core PCE around 3.3%—combined with resilient growth, a solid labor market, and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions have lifted real yields and term premiums. Heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns are also widening the compensation investors demand for duration. With the next FOMC meeting set for late October and upcoming CPI, employment, and GDP releases, markets are repricing the likelihood of rates staying higher for longer, supporting further upside pressure on the 5-year benchmark through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
交易量
$25,169结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
The 5-year Treasury yield, recently trading near 4.86%, has climbed sharply from year-ago levels near 3.6% amid the Federal Reserve’s September 2026 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range and updated projections signaling a more hawkish path. Persistent inflation—August CPI near 3.4% and core PCE around 3.3%—combined with resilient growth, a solid labor market, and elevated energy prices from geopolitical tensions have lifted real yields and term premiums. Heavy Treasury supply and fiscal concerns are also widening the compensation investors demand for duration. With the next FOMC meeting set for late October and upcoming CPI, employment, and GDP releases, markets are repricing the likelihood of rates staying higher for longer, supporting further upside pressure on the 5-year benchmark through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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