Japan's Q1 2026 GDP growth expectations center on export resilience and steady domestic demand, with consensus forecasts pointing to 0.4–0.5% quarter-on-quarter expansion ahead of the Cabinet Office preliminary release on May 19. Traders price the 0.3–0.5% band at 50.3% implied probability and the adjacent 0.6–0.8% interval at 42.8%, reflecting uncertainty over whether capital expenditures and private consumption will offset any lingering tariff effects while Middle East tensions remain contained in the first-quarter data. Recent Tankan surveys and industrial production readings support this balanced outlook, though revisions to prior quarters and final seasonal adjustments could still shift the print between the two leading ranges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0.3–0.5% 50.2%
0.0–0.2% 6.7%
-0.3%–-0.1% 4.1%
1.2%及以上 1.6%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3%–-0.1%
4%
0.0–0.2%
7%
0.3–0.5%
50%
0.6–0.8%
43%
0.9–1.1%
31%
1.2%及以上
2%
0.3–0.5% 50.2%
0.0–0.2% 6.7%
-0.3%–-0.1% 4.1%
1.2%及以上 1.6%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
≤-0.4%
$1,275 交易量
1%
-0.3%–-0.1%
$1,204 交易量
4%
0.0–0.2%
$1,315 交易量
7%
0.3–0.5%
$868 交易量
50%
0.6–0.8%
$517 交易量
43%
0.9–1.1%
$750 交易量
31%
1.2%及以上
$3,333 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan's Q1 2026 GDP growth expectations center on export resilience and steady domestic demand, with consensus forecasts pointing to 0.4–0.5% quarter-on-quarter expansion ahead of the Cabinet Office preliminary release on May 19. Traders price the 0.3–0.5% band at 50.3% implied probability and the adjacent 0.6–0.8% interval at 42.8%, reflecting uncertainty over whether capital expenditures and private consumption will offset any lingering tariff effects while Middle East tensions remain contained in the first-quarter data. Recent Tankan surveys and industrial production readings support this balanced outlook, though revisions to prior quarters and final seasonal adjustments could still shift the print between the two leading ranges.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
市场开放时间： Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$9,262结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan's Q1 2026 GDP growth expectations center on export resilience and steady domestic demand, with consensus forecasts pointing to 0.4–0.5% quarter-on-quarter expansion ahead of the Cabinet Office preliminary release on May 19. Traders price the 0.3–0.5% band at 50.3% implied probability and the adjacent 0.6–0.8% interval at 42.8%, reflecting uncertainty over whether capital expenditures and private consumption will offset any lingering tariff effects while Middle East tensions remain contained in the first-quarter data. Recent Tankan surveys and industrial production readings support this balanced outlook, though revisions to prior quarters and final seasonal adjustments could still shift the print between the two leading ranges.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
交易量
$9,262结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Japan's Q1 2026 GDP growth expectations center on export resilience and steady domestic demand, with consensus forecasts pointing to 0.4–0.5% quarter-on-quarter expansion ahead of the Cabinet Office preliminary release on May 19. Traders price the 0.3–0.5% band at 50.3% implied probability and the adjacent 0.6–0.8% interval at 42.8%, reflecting uncertainty over whether capital expenditures and private consumption will offset any lingering tariff effects while Middle East tensions remain contained in the first-quarter data. Recent Tankan surveys and industrial production readings support this balanced outlook, though revisions to prior quarters and final seasonal adjustments could still shift the print between the two leading ranges.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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