Recent forecasts from private think tanks and the Japan Center for Economic Research peg Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP at roughly 0.4–0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized pace near 1.7–1.8 percent, driven by resilient private consumption, steady capital expenditure, and recovering exports amid fading tariff effects and firm semiconductor demand. Market-implied odds remain tightly contested between the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent bands because the preliminary Cabinet Office release due May 19 carries typical revision risk and limited visibility into Middle East energy shocks that are expected to weigh more heavily on Q2. Traders are therefore balancing solid domestic-demand data and wage-supported spending against potential downside revisions once full-quarter figures incorporate any lingering external pressures, keeping the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于0.9–1.1% 30.6%
0.0–0.2% 3.6%
1.2%及以上 1.8%
-0.3%–-0.1% 1.4%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3%–-0.1%
1%
0.0–0.2%
4%
0.3–0.5%
46%
0.6–0.8%
42%
0.9–1.1%
31%
1.2%及以上
2%
0.9–1.1% 30.6%
0.0–0.2% 3.6%
1.2%及以上 1.8%
-0.3%–-0.1% 1.4%
最新
最新
2026-05-19
≤-0.4%
$1,317 交易量
1%
-0.3%–-0.1%
$1,373 交易量
1%
0.0–0.2%
$1,357 交易量
4%
0.3–0.5%
$911 交易量
46%
0.6–0.8%
$586 交易量
42%
0.9–1.1%
$792 交易量
31%
1.2%及以上
$3,375 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent forecasts from private think tanks and the Japan Center for Economic Research peg Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP at roughly 0.4–0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized pace near 1.7–1.8 percent, driven by resilient private consumption, steady capital expenditure, and recovering exports amid fading tariff effects and firm semiconductor demand. Market-implied odds remain tightly contested between the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent bands because the preliminary Cabinet Office release due May 19 carries typical revision risk and limited visibility into Middle East energy shocks that are expected to weigh more heavily on Q2. Traders are therefore balancing solid domestic-demand data and wage-supported spending against potential downside revisions once full-quarter figures incorporate any lingering external pressures, keeping the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
市场开放时间： Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
交易量
$9,682结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent forecasts from private think tanks and the Japan Center for Economic Research peg Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP at roughly 0.4–0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized pace near 1.7–1.8 percent, driven by resilient private consumption, steady capital expenditure, and recovering exports amid fading tariff effects and firm semiconductor demand. Market-implied odds remain tightly contested between the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent bands because the preliminary Cabinet Office release due May 19 carries typical revision risk and limited visibility into Middle East energy shocks that are expected to weigh more heavily on Q2. Traders are therefore balancing solid domestic-demand data and wage-supported spending against potential downside revisions once full-quarter figures incorporate any lingering external pressures, keeping the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
交易量
$9,682结束日期
2026-05-19市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent forecasts from private think tanks and the Japan Center for Economic Research peg Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP at roughly 0.4–0.5 percent quarter-on-quarter, translating to an annualized pace near 1.7–1.8 percent, driven by resilient private consumption, steady capital expenditure, and recovering exports amid fading tariff effects and firm semiconductor demand. Market-implied odds remain tightly contested between the 0.3–0.5 percent and 0.6–0.8 percent bands because the preliminary Cabinet Office release due May 19 carries typical revision risk and limited visibility into Middle East energy shocks that are expected to weigh more heavily on Q2. Traders are therefore balancing solid domestic-demand data and wage-supported spending against potential downside revisions once full-quarter figures incorporate any lingering external pressures, keeping the two leading outcomes within a few percentage points of each other.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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