Trader consensus around a 73% implied probability for no natural disaster in 2026 stems from current monitoring data showing seismic and atmospheric activity within normal historical ranges. USGS reports indicate no anomalous strain buildup along major fault systems, while NOAA seasonal outlooks for the remainder of the year point to typical tropical cyclone formation potential without signals for extreme intensification or landfall clusters. ENSO-neutral conditions further reduce the likelihood of amplified weather extremes, consistent with baseline climatology. Any shift in trader sentiment would likely follow new model runs or confirmed events exceeding standard magnitude thresholds by late 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$218,251 交易量
$218,251 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$218,251 交易量
$218,251 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus around a 73% implied probability for no natural disaster in 2026 stems from current monitoring data showing seismic and atmospheric activity within normal historical ranges. USGS reports indicate no anomalous strain buildup along major fault systems, while NOAA seasonal outlooks for the remainder of the year point to typical tropical cyclone formation potential without signals for extreme intensification or landfall clusters. ENSO-neutral conditions further reduce the likelihood of amplified weather extremes, consistent with baseline climatology. Any shift in trader sentiment would likely follow new model runs or confirmed events exceeding standard magnitude thresholds by late 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
交易量
$218,251结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus around a 73% implied probability for no natural disaster in 2026 stems from current monitoring data showing seismic and atmospheric activity within normal historical ranges. USGS reports indicate no anomalous strain buildup along major fault systems, while NOAA seasonal outlooks for the remainder of the year point to typical tropical cyclone formation potential without signals for extreme intensification or landfall clusters. ENSO-neutral conditions further reduce the likelihood of amplified weather extremes, consistent with baseline climatology. Any shift in trader sentiment would likely follow new model runs or confirmed events exceeding standard magnitude thresholds by late 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
交易量
$218,251结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus around a 73% implied probability for no natural disaster in 2026 stems from current monitoring data showing seismic and atmospheric activity within normal historical ranges. USGS reports indicate no anomalous strain buildup along major fault systems, while NOAA seasonal outlooks for the remainder of the year point to typical tropical cyclone formation potential without signals for extreme intensification or landfall clusters. ENSO-neutral conditions further reduce the likelihood of amplified weather extremes, consistent with baseline climatology. Any shift in trader sentiment would likely follow new model runs or confirmed events exceeding standard magnitude thresholds by late 2026.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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