US mediation efforts under President Trump have driven recent trader sentiment, highlighted by the US-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 that suspended kinetic activity and enabled a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s subsequent statements suggesting the conflict may be nearing an end and his openness to direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after a finalized treaty have added diplomatic signals, though both sides continue mutual accusations of violations and maintain entrenched positions on territorial control and security guarantees. Stalled broader negotiations, persistent airstrikes and ground operations, and competing ceasefire proposals underscore the gap between short-term humanitarian pauses and a comprehensive agreement. Upcoming diplomatic engagements and any extension of the current truce remain key variables that could influence probabilities for a formal ceasefire by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$623,615 交易量
2026-12-31
5月31日
3%
6月30日
12%
10月31日
37%
12月31日
49%
$623,615 交易量
5月31日
$270,802 交易量
3%
6月30日
$197,623 交易量
12%
10月31日
$57,059 交易量
37%
12月31日
$98,132 交易量
49%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US mediation efforts under President Trump have driven recent trader sentiment, highlighted by the US-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 that suspended kinetic activity and enabled a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s subsequent statements suggesting the conflict may be nearing an end and his openness to direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after a finalized treaty have added diplomatic signals, though both sides continue mutual accusations of violations and maintain entrenched positions on territorial control and security guarantees. Stalled broader negotiations, persistent airstrikes and ground operations, and competing ceasefire proposals underscore the gap between short-term humanitarian pauses and a comprehensive agreement. Upcoming diplomatic engagements and any extension of the current truce remain key variables that could influence probabilities for a formal ceasefire by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
交易量
$623,615结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US mediation efforts under President Trump have driven recent trader sentiment, highlighted by the US-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 that suspended kinetic activity and enabled a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s subsequent statements suggesting the conflict may be nearing an end and his openness to direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after a finalized treaty have added diplomatic signals, though both sides continue mutual accusations of violations and maintain entrenched positions on territorial control and security guarantees. Stalled broader negotiations, persistent airstrikes and ground operations, and competing ceasefire proposals underscore the gap between short-term humanitarian pauses and a comprehensive agreement. Upcoming diplomatic engagements and any extension of the current truce remain key variables that could influence probabilities for a formal ceasefire by year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$623,615结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US mediation efforts under President Trump have driven recent trader sentiment, highlighted by the US-brokered three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 that suspended kinetic activity and enabled a 1,000-prisoner swap per side. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s subsequent statements suggesting the conflict may be nearing an end and his openness to direct talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after a finalized treaty have added diplomatic signals, though both sides continue mutual accusations of violations and maintain entrenched positions on territorial control and security guarantees. Stalled broader negotiations, persistent airstrikes and ground operations, and competing ceasefire proposals underscore the gap between short-term humanitarian pauses and a comprehensive agreement. Upcoming diplomatic engagements and any extension of the current truce remain key variables that could influence probabilities for a formal ceasefire by year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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