Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年9月1日之前 100.0%
2026年9月1日至14日 <1%
2026年9月15日 - 30日 <1%
2026年10月1日 - 31日 <1%
$114,890 交易量
$114,890 交易量
2026-09-01
2026年9月1日之前
是
2026年9月1日至14日
否
2026年9月15日 - 30日
否
2026年10月1日 - 31日
否
截至2026年11月1日未恢复
否
2026年9月1日之前 100.0%
2026年9月1日至14日 <1%
2026年9月15日 - 30日 <1%
2026年10月1日 - 31日 <1%
$114,890 交易量
$114,890 交易量
2026-09-01
2026年9月1日之前
$29,262 交易量
是
2026年9月1日至14日
$27,841 交易量
否
2026年9月15日 - 30日
$20,397 交易量
否
2026年10月1日 - 31日
$21,235 交易量
否
截至2026年11月1日未恢复
$16,154 交易量
否
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
交易量
$114,890结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Kaub gauge (station 25700100) on the Rhine River first reaches or exceeds 77 centimeters, as reported by the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV) via PegelOnline. A reading of 77 centimeters or higher is the equivalent water level (Gleichwertiger Wasserstand, GlW) for Kaub, the low-water navigation reference above which full navigation of the Rhine is possible, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 77 centimeters is recorded at the Kaub gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 77 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 77 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 77 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 77 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be PegelOnline (https://www.pegelonline.wsv.de/gast/stammdaten?pegelnr=25700100). If PegelOnline is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$114,890结束日期
2026-11-01市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET已提议结果: 是
无争议
最终结果: 是
Recent rainfall across southern Germany and the Alpine headwaters has begun lifting Rhine gauge readings from mid-August record lows, with Kaub rising from near 10 cm to around 70 cm and similar modest gains at other stations. Traders appear to price in additional precipitation and typical late-summer inflows as sufficient to restore normal navigation depths within days, producing near-certain consensus on a return before September 1. Persistent low-water constraints still limit fully loaded barges and force partial loads or modal shifts, yet the market reflects expectations of quick stabilization. Extended dry weather, below-average upstream runoff, or delayed seasonal rains could realistically push recovery into mid-September or later.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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