Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 release in mid-April, followed by May Dev Day updates to agent workflows and Claude Code features, has solidified its lead in coding benchmarks and long-running task reliability, driving the 71% implied probability. Traders see these advances as outpacing competitors in practical capabilities that define frontier large language models. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite launch and multi-token prediction improvements on May 8 keep it at 20.5% by strengthening efficiency and reasoning edges. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout on May 5 and xAI’s Grok 4.3 update have not shifted enough benchmark leadership or agent performance to close the gap, leaving their odds at 6% and 1.1% respectively ahead of June resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Anthropic 71.0%
谷歌 21%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.1%
$6,013,049 交易量
$6,013,049 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
71%
谷歌
21%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
<1%
亚马逊
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
<1%
微软
<1%
字节跳动
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美团
<1%
百度
<1%
Anthropic 71.0%
谷歌 21%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.1%
$6,013,049 交易量
$6,013,049 交易量
2026-06-30
Anthropic
$845,988 交易量
71%
谷歌
$549,693 交易量
21%
OpenAI
$343,745 交易量
6%
xAI
$1,067,680 交易量
1%
Meta
$136,997 交易量
1%
分组项标题：DeepSeek
$504,491 交易量
<1%
亚马逊
$163,558 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$303,595 交易量
<1%
分组项标题：Mistral
$483,615 交易量
<1%
微软
$156,708 交易量
<1%
字节跳动
$160,177 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$383,409 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$364,375 交易量
<1%
美团
$383,469 交易量
<1%
百度
$165,559 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 release in mid-April, followed by May Dev Day updates to agent workflows and Claude Code features, has solidified its lead in coding benchmarks and long-running task reliability, driving the 71% implied probability. Traders see these advances as outpacing competitors in practical capabilities that define frontier large language models. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite launch and multi-token prediction improvements on May 8 keep it at 20.5% by strengthening efficiency and reasoning edges. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout on May 5 and xAI’s Grok 4.3 update have not shifted enough benchmark leadership or agent performance to close the gap, leaving their odds at 6% and 1.1% respectively ahead of June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市场开放时间： Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
交易量
$6,013,049结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 release in mid-April, followed by May Dev Day updates to agent workflows and Claude Code features, has solidified its lead in coding benchmarks and long-running task reliability, driving the 71% implied probability. Traders see these advances as outpacing competitors in practical capabilities that define frontier large language models. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite launch and multi-token prediction improvements on May 8 keep it at 20.5% by strengthening efficiency and reasoning edges. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout on May 5 and xAI’s Grok 4.3 update have not shifted enough benchmark leadership or agent performance to close the gap, leaving their odds at 6% and 1.1% respectively ahead of June resolution.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$6,013,049结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 release in mid-April, followed by May Dev Day updates to agent workflows and Claude Code features, has solidified its lead in coding benchmarks and long-running task reliability, driving the 71% implied probability. Traders see these advances as outpacing competitors in practical capabilities that define frontier large language models. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite launch and multi-token prediction improvements on May 8 keep it at 20.5% by strengthening efficiency and reasoning edges. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 Instant default rollout on May 5 and xAI’s Grok 4.3 update have not shifted enough benchmark leadership or agent performance to close the gap, leaving their odds at 6% and 1.1% respectively ahead of June resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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