David Crowley’s narrow victory over Francesca Hong in the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor has driven near-certain trader consensus around a 0.4–0.6% margin. Official results showed Crowley at 39.8% and Hong at 39.3%, a roughly 4,000-vote edge in a low-turnout contest featuring multiple candidates. Late momentum for the Milwaukee County executive, who re-entered after briefly withdrawing, combined with undecided voters breaking heavily in his favor, produced the outcome. With the gap holding across nearly all ballots counted and no viable path for reversal under standard canvassing rules, traders assign negligible probability to wider or narrower brackets. Final certification or any unexpected recount trigger remains the only realistic variable that could alter resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Crowley 0.4–0.6% 98.8%
Crowley 0.2–0.4% 1.3%
Crowley 0.6–0.8% <1%
Crowley <0.2% <1%
$213,113 交易量
$213,113 交易量
2026-08-12
Hong 1%+
<1%
Hong 0.8–1%
<1%
Hong 0.6–0.8%
<1%
Hong 0.4–0.6%
<1%
Hong 0.2–0.4%
<1%
Hong <0.2%
<1%
Crowley <0.2%
<1%
Crowley 0.2–0.4%
1%
Crowley 0.4–0.6%
99%
Crowley 0.6–0.8%
1%
Crowley 0.8–1%
<1%
Crowley 1–1.2%
<1%
Crowley 1.2–1.4%
<1%
Crowley 1.4–1.6%
<1%
Crowley 1.6–1.8%
<1%
Crowley 1.8–2%
<1%
Crowley 2%+
<1%
Crowley 0.4–0.6% 98.8%
Crowley 0.2–0.4% 1.3%
Crowley 0.6–0.8% <1%
Crowley <0.2% <1%
$213,113 交易量
$213,113 交易量
2026-08-12
Hong 1%+
$319 交易量
<1%
Hong 0.8–1%
$232 交易量
<1%
Hong 0.6–0.8%
$694 交易量
<1%
Hong 0.4–0.6%
$716 交易量
<1%
Hong 0.2–0.4%
$749 交易量
<1%
Hong <0.2%
$576 交易量
<1%
Crowley <0.2%
$37,514 交易量
<1%
Crowley 0.2–0.4%
$41,432 交易量
1%
Crowley 0.4–0.6%
$38,952 交易量
99%
Crowley 0.6–0.8%
$29,981 交易量
1%
Crowley 0.8–1%
$26,575 交易量
<1%
Crowley 1–1.2%
$30,077 交易量
<1%
Crowley 1.2–1.4%
$1,194 交易量
<1%
Crowley 1.4–1.6%
$1,140 交易量
<1%
Crowley 1.6–1.8%
$1,181 交易量
<1%
Crowley 1.8–2%
$1,261 交易量
<1%
Crowley 2%+
$521 交易量
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley’s narrow victory over Francesca Hong in the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor has driven near-certain trader consensus around a 0.4–0.6% margin. Official results showed Crowley at 39.8% and Hong at 39.3%, a roughly 4,000-vote edge in a low-turnout contest featuring multiple candidates. Late momentum for the Milwaukee County executive, who re-entered after briefly withdrawing, combined with undecided voters breaking heavily in his favor, produced the outcome. With the gap holding across nearly all ballots counted and no viable path for reversal under standard canvassing rules, traders assign negligible probability to wider or narrower brackets. Final certification or any unexpected recount trigger remains the only realistic variable that could alter resolution.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ET
交易量
$213,113结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.David Crowley’s narrow victory over Francesca Hong in the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor has driven near-certain trader consensus around a 0.4–0.6% margin. Official results showed Crowley at 39.8% and Hong at 39.3%, a roughly 4,000-vote edge in a low-turnout contest featuring multiple candidates. Late momentum for the Milwaukee County executive, who re-entered after briefly withdrawing, combined with undecided voters breaking heavily in his favor, produced the outcome. With the gap holding across nearly all ballots counted and no viable path for reversal under standard canvassing rules, traders assign negligible probability to wider or narrower brackets. Final certification or any unexpected recount trigger remains the only realistic variable that could alter resolution.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$213,113结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 12:15 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...David Crowley’s narrow victory over Francesca Hong in the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor has driven near-certain trader consensus around a 0.4–0.6% margin. Official results showed Crowley at 39.8% and Hong at 39.3%, a roughly 4,000-vote edge in a low-turnout contest featuring multiple candidates. Late momentum for the Milwaukee County executive, who re-entered after briefly withdrawing, combined with undecided voters breaking heavily in his favor, produced the outcome. With the gap holding across nearly all ballots counted and no viable path for reversal under standard canvassing rules, traders assign negligible probability to wider or narrower brackets. Final certification or any unexpected recount trigger remains the only realistic variable that could alter resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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