Argentina’s April monthly inflation print of 2.6 percent—the first deceleration in eleven months—has anchored trader expectations for further moderation in May, reinforcing the 62 percent market-implied odds on the 2.2–2.4 percent range. Sustained fiscal tightening and easing core pressures under the current policy framework continue to support the disinflation trajectory, while the annual rate’s decline to 32.4 percent bolsters the case for sequential improvement. The secondary 24 percent weighting on ≤2.1 percent reflects the possibility of additional moderation, whereas thinner pricing on higher bands signals limited conviction in reacceleration. Traders are now focused on incoming wage negotiations and regulated-price adjustments ahead of the June 11 INDEC release, as these factors could influence the final monthly outcome.