Ongoing global warming trends, amplified by a developing El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, underpin the overwhelming 95.5% market-implied probability for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29°C above pre-industrial levels. Recent data from agencies like NOAA and Berkeley Earth confirm June 2026 ranked among the second-warmest months on record at roughly 1.49°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with early August daily records and accelerated underlying warming rates near 0.35°C per decade supporting sustained high anomalies. Trader consensus reflects these measurements alongside model projections indicating continued warmth through northern summer. A rapid shift to strong La Niña conditions or unexpected volcanic cooling could narrow the margin, though current observational and forecast data make such reversals unlikely before month-end resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
>1.29ºC 96%
1.25–1.29ºC 4.9%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$12,887 Vol.
$12,887 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
5%
>1.29ºC
96%
>1.29ºC 96%
1.25–1.29ºC 4.9%
1.20–1.24ºC <1%
<1.10ºC <1%
$12,887 Vol.
$12,887 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$877 Vol.
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$999 Vol.
<1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$1,121 Vol.
<1%
1.20–1.24ºC
$1,947 Vol.
1%
1.25–1.29ºC
$2,483 Vol.
5%
>1.29ºC
$5,459 Vol.
96%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Ongoing global warming trends, amplified by a developing El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, underpin the overwhelming 95.5% market-implied probability for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29°C above pre-industrial levels. Recent data from agencies like NOAA and Berkeley Earth confirm June 2026 ranked among the second-warmest months on record at roughly 1.49°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with early August daily records and accelerated underlying warming rates near 0.35°C per decade supporting sustained high anomalies. Trader consensus reflects these measurements alongside model projections indicating continued warmth through northern summer. A rapid shift to strong La Niña conditions or unexpected volcanic cooling could narrow the margin, though current observational and forecast data make such reversals unlikely before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
ভলিউম
$12,887শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Ongoing global warming trends, amplified by a developing El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, underpin the overwhelming 95.5% market-implied probability for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29°C above pre-industrial levels. Recent data from agencies like NOAA and Berkeley Earth confirm June 2026 ranked among the second-warmest months on record at roughly 1.49°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with early August daily records and accelerated underlying warming rates near 0.35°C per decade supporting sustained high anomalies. Trader consensus reflects these measurements alongside model projections indicating continued warmth through northern summer. A rapid shift to strong La Niña conditions or unexpected volcanic cooling could narrow the margin, though current observational and forecast data make such reversals unlikely before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$12,887শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 28, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing global warming trends, amplified by a developing El Niño event in the tropical Pacific, underpin the overwhelming 95.5% market-implied probability for an August 2026 global temperature anomaly exceeding 1.29°C above pre-industrial levels. Recent data from agencies like NOAA and Berkeley Earth confirm June 2026 ranked among the second-warmest months on record at roughly 1.49°C above the 1850–1900 baseline, with early August daily records and accelerated underlying warming rates near 0.35°C per decade supporting sustained high anomalies. Trader consensus reflects these measurements alongside model projections indicating continued warmth through northern summer. A rapid shift to strong La Niña conditions or unexpected volcanic cooling could narrow the margin, though current observational and forecast data make such reversals unlikely before month-end resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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