Strong El Niño conditions strengthening rapidly across the equatorial Pacific—with Niño 3.4 anomalies already above +2°C and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by late 2026—represent the dominant driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.38–1.41°C bin. Record global ocean sea surface temperatures, including a new daily high near 21.1°C in August, combined with elevated year-to-date anomalies (around 1.47–1.56°C in recent months per Berkeley Earth and similar analyses), reinforce expectations for a moderately elevated monthly value relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Official forecasts from NOAA and others highlight the event’s lagged warming influence through boreal fall, though model spread and final observational revisions introduce modest uncertainty around exact August resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAugust 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
August 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC) (HIGHER STRIKES)
1.38–1.41ºC 80%
1.42–1.45ºC 17%
1.34–1.37ºC 3.6%
>1.45ºC 3.5%
$13,072 Vol.
$13,072 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
1%
1.34–1.37ºC
4%
1.38–1.41ºC
80%
1.42–1.45ºC
17%
>1.45ºC
3%
1.38–1.41ºC 80%
1.42–1.45ºC 17%
1.34–1.37ºC 3.6%
>1.45ºC 3.5%
$13,072 Vol.
$13,072 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1.30ºC
$642 Vol.
<1%
1.30–1.33ºC
$1,390 Vol.
1%
1.34–1.37ºC
$2,313 Vol.
4%
1.38–1.41ºC
$2,576 Vol.
80%
1.42–1.45ºC
$5,243 Vol.
17%
>1.45ºC
$908 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions strengthening rapidly across the equatorial Pacific—with Niño 3.4 anomalies already above +2°C and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by late 2026—represent the dominant driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.38–1.41°C bin. Record global ocean sea surface temperatures, including a new daily high near 21.1°C in August, combined with elevated year-to-date anomalies (around 1.47–1.56°C in recent months per Berkeley Earth and similar analyses), reinforce expectations for a moderately elevated monthly value relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Official forecasts from NOAA and others highlight the event’s lagged warming influence through boreal fall, though model spread and final observational revisions introduce modest uncertainty around exact August resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ET
ভলিউম
$13,072শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Strong El Niño conditions strengthening rapidly across the equatorial Pacific—with Niño 3.4 anomalies already above +2°C and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by late 2026—represent the dominant driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.38–1.41°C bin. Record global ocean sea surface temperatures, including a new daily high near 21.1°C in August, combined with elevated year-to-date anomalies (around 1.47–1.56°C in recent months per Berkeley Earth and similar analyses), reinforce expectations for a moderately elevated monthly value relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Official forecasts from NOAA and others highlight the event’s lagged warming influence through boreal fall, though model spread and final observational revisions introduce modest uncertainty around exact August resolution.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for August 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for August 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for August 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Aug" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for August 2026 is provided by NASA by October 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$13,072শেষ তারিখ
Sep 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 14, 2026, 2:30 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions strengthening rapidly across the equatorial Pacific—with Niño 3.4 anomalies already above +2°C and models projecting a very strong or historic peak by late 2026—represent the dominant driver pushing trader consensus toward the 1.38–1.41°C bin. Record global ocean sea surface temperatures, including a new daily high near 21.1°C in August, combined with elevated year-to-date anomalies (around 1.47–1.56°C in recent months per Berkeley Earth and similar analyses), reinforce expectations for a moderately elevated monthly value relative to the 1850–1900 baseline. Official forecasts from NOAA and others highlight the event’s lagged warming influence through boreal fall, though model spread and final observational revisions introduce modest uncertainty around exact August resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা