Recent Houthi maritime restrictions, including the July 2026 blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, have driven sharp volatility and a sustained decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship crossings fluctuating between lows of 1–5 and highs near 30–39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This has stabilized weekly volumes around 260–270 vessels—well below pre-escalation norms of roughly 350+—as carriers weigh risks from missile threats and enforcement actions tied to broader regional tensions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-25 daily averages reflect trader assessment of these persistent disruptions, with limited near-term catalysts for recovery before month-end absent verified de-escalation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 6%
$15,134 Vol.
$15,134 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
45%
25-29
27%
30-34
20%
35-39
6%
40+
2%
<25 44.8%
25-29 27%
30-34 20%
35-39 6%
$15,134 Vol.
$15,134 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<25
$2,960 Vol.
45%
25-29
$3,518 Vol.
27%
30-34
$3,754 Vol.
20%
35-39
$1,163 Vol.
6%
40+
$3,738 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime restrictions, including the July 2026 blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, have driven sharp volatility and a sustained decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship crossings fluctuating between lows of 1–5 and highs near 30–39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This has stabilized weekly volumes around 260–270 vessels—well below pre-escalation norms of roughly 350+—as carriers weigh risks from missile threats and enforcement actions tied to broader regional tensions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-25 daily averages reflect trader assessment of these persistent disruptions, with limited near-term catalysts for recovery before month-end absent verified de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ET
ভলিউম
$15,134শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Recent Houthi maritime restrictions, including the July 2026 blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, have driven sharp volatility and a sustained decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship crossings fluctuating between lows of 1–5 and highs near 30–39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This has stabilized weekly volumes around 260–270 vessels—well below pre-escalation norms of roughly 350+—as carriers weigh risks from missile threats and enforcement actions tied to broader regional tensions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-25 daily averages reflect trader assessment of these persistent disruptions, with limited near-term catalysts for recovery before month-end absent verified de-escalation.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ভলিউম
$15,134শেষ তারিখ
Aug 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jul 31, 2026, 2:13 PM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
IMF PortWatchResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Houthi maritime restrictions, including the July 2026 blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, have driven sharp volatility and a sustained decline in Bab el-Mandeb transits, with daily commodity ship crossings fluctuating between lows of 1–5 and highs near 30–39 amid elevated insurance costs and rerouting incentives. This has stabilized weekly volumes around 260–270 vessels—well below pre-escalation norms of roughly 350+—as carriers weigh risks from missile threats and enforcement actions tied to broader regional tensions. Market-implied odds favoring sub-25 daily averages reflect trader assessment of these persistent disruptions, with limited near-term catalysts for recovery before month-end absent verified de-escalation.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা