SPD Berlin Landesparteitag scheduled to finalize election program on May 8-9

SPD rises to 10%3%

Anticipation of the final program adoption gave a slight boost to SPD's market

Latest PolitPro poll places Grüne at 16.6%, behind CDU and AfD but ahead of SPD, indicating stable but limited growth

Grüne rises to 22%3%

Recent polling data confirmed Grüne's position as a significant but not leading force, supporting a modest upward.

AfD hits 51% in Berlin opinion polls but faces entrenched center-right and left coalitions

AfD jumps to 17%7%

AfD briefly peaked in Berlin polls at 51%, reflecting a surge in popularity, but persistent skepticism and strong coalitions limited further gains, causing volatile market reactions.

BSW holds party congress, adopts detailed election program emphasizing peace, social justice, and housing policies

BSW finalized its election platform focusing on peace politics, minimum wage initiatives, and housing reforms. Despite this programmatic clarity, the party's polling remained low, and the market.

Polls show slight recovery for Grüne to around 15-16%, reflecting renewed focus on environmental and social policies

Grüne jumps to 15%6%

Improved polling numbers in mid-April, possibly due to campaign efforts emphasizing green policies, led to a moderate.

BerlinTrend poll shows CDU narrowly ahead, with Grüne, Linke, and AfD nearly tied, reflecting a fragmented race

Grüne rises to 12%3%

An April BerlinTrend poll revealed a tight race with Grüne close to other parties, temporarily boosting market confidence in their chances.

AfD Thuringia becomes strongest party in 2024 state election with 32.8%

AfD dips to 10%3%

AfD’s historic win in Thuringia as the strongest party in a German state parliament underscored its regional strength but also intensified scrutiny and resistance, possibly tempering Berlin market enthusiasm.

Civey poll confirms BSW at 4%, still below threshold, with CDU leading the race

BSW dips to 1%1%

Another poll by Civey reaffirmed BSW's weak position at 4%, maintaining market consensus that BSW was unlikely to surpass the 5% threshold, keeping the.

Baden-Württemberg state election kicks off 2026 election season with AfD polling 21%

The start of the 2026 election season with AfD polling strongly in Baden-Württemberg (21%) indicated growing national relevance, though Berlin-specific prospects remained uncertain.

AfD surges in Saxony-Anhalt state polls to 41%, far ahead of CDU

AfD rises to 15%3%

Infratest dimap polling showed AfD widening its lead in Saxony-Anhalt to 41%, signaling strong regional momentum in eastern Germany and raising hopes for electoral breakthroughs, which positively influenced market sentiment.

INSA poll reports BSW at 4%, still under the threshold but showing slight improvement

BSW jumps to 7%6%

The INSA poll showed a modest rise in BSW support to 4%, briefly lifting market optimism and causing a small.

SPD Berlin Landesvorstand approves draft of the 2026 election program

SPD rises to 7%1%

Approval of the draft election program signaled SPD's preparation for the campaign, but market reaction was muted due to lack of major new policy announcements.

Infratest dimap poll shows BSW at 3% support, well below the 5% electoral threshold

A major January poll by Infratest dimap confirmed BSW's low voter support at 3%, far below the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament. This reinforced market skepticism about BSW's chances, keeping the.

SPD announces Steffen Krach as lead candidate, intensifying competition for left-leaning voters

Grüne rises to 5%1%

SPD's nomination of Steffen Krach and focus on housing and social services increased pressure on Grüne to maintain their voter base, causing minor.

Nationwide poll shows AfD leads CDU with record 27% support

AfD rises to 11%4%

A GMS poll published in early January showed AfD at a record 27% nationwide, ahead of Chancellor Merz’s CDU at 24%, marking the party’s highest-ever polling and briefly boosting market optimism.

CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the

CDU rises to 61%1%

CDU wins the Rhineland‑Palatinate state election, its first major victory since the 2025 federal election, and Chancellor Friedrich Merz hails the result as “a relief for the Union”

Polls show CDU leading Berlin election with 25%, Grüne at 15% amid active campaigning by all parties

Grüne plunges to 1%49%

Late 2025 polls indicated CDU as the frontrunner with 25%, while Grüne lagged at 15%, signaling a weak position for the Greens and triggering a sharp.

BSW announces two Spitzenkandidaten for Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election: Alexander King and Michael Lüders

BSW plunges to 1%49%

The BSW publicly revealed its lead candidates for the September 2026 Berlin state election, marking its first run for the Abgeordnetenhaus. Despite this, the party was new and polling weakly, leading to a rapid market.

Saxony revokes firearms licenses of AfD members under secret decree citing right-wing extremist classification

AfD plunges to 6%44%

Saxony’s Interior Ministry confirmed a secret decree revoking and denying firearms licenses to AfD members and supporters, citing the party’s designation as a confirmed right-wing extremist group. This legal pressure likely undermined confidence in AfD’s electoral prospects in Berlin, triggering a sharp.

Steffen Krach selected as SPD lead candidate for 2026 Berlin state election

SPD rises to 9%3%

The nomination of Steffen Krach, Berlin Police president, as lead candidate was seen as a positive step for SPD's campaign, causing a modest

SPD and CDU begin negotiations for a grand coalition in Berlin

SPD rises to 9%3%

The start of coalition talks with CDU raised some hopes for SPD's influence in government, slightly stabilizing the market

SPD suffers worst result in over a century with 18.4% in Berlin repeat state election, barely ahead of the Greens by 53 votes

SPD plunges to 8%42%

The SPD's historic low vote share in the 2023 repeat election shocked the market, causing a sharp drop in confidence about SPD winning the 2026 election.