Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have elevated energy prices and pushed March CPI to 3.3 percent while core PCE reached 3.2 percent, prompting the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds target range steady at 3.50–3.75 percent after the April FOMC meeting. Brokerage forecasts now diverge sharply, with BofA projecting no cuts until July 2027 and Goldman Sachs shifting easing to late 2026, reflecting a resilient labor market that added only 115,000 jobs in April and kept unemployment near 4.3 percent. Market-implied odds from CME FedWatch show roughly 70 percent probability of no policy change through year-end, while traders price in limited scope for a single 25-basis-point cut later this year if inflation moderates. The June 16–17 FOMC meeting and forthcoming inflation and employment data releases remain the key near-term catalysts that could alter the current hawkish tilt in trader consensus.