Rich McCormick holds an 88% implied probability as the GA-07 winner due to the district’s consistent Republican lean in presidential voting and his status as the sitting incumbent with a substantial fundraising edge of roughly $2.2 million raised compared to Tony Kozycki’s $880,000. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Likely Republican, reflecting structural advantages that have limited Democratic gains despite suburban demographic shifts in Gwinnett County. October polling showed a narrow or tied race in one survey, yet broader models projected an R+9 margin, and McCormick secured a Trump endorsement days before Election Day. Kozycki’s campaign highlighted McCormick’s limited public events and debate participation, but these factors have not overcome the district’s baseline partisan tilt or the incumbent’s resource advantage in the final stretch. Markets continue to price in a strong Republican hold pending full vote tabulation.