Germany’s Q2 2026 GDP growth outlook remains finely balanced, with Polymarket assigning nearly identical implied probabilities of 47.5 percent to both the ≤0.0 percent and 1.0-1.2 percent buckets. The primary catalyst is the German government’s late-April downgrade of its full-year 2026 forecast to just 0.5 percent, reflecting elevated energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict and their pass-through into higher inflation near 2.8 percent. Q1 delivered a solid 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion driven by consumption, yet softening industrial production, rising unemployment above three million, and weaker business sentiment indicators now point to moderation. Traders are closely monitoring the June CPI release and industrial output data for signals on whether fiscal support can offset these headwinds and support a modest rebound.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 47%
1.3%+ 44%
0.7-0.9% 25%
নতুন
নতুন
Jul 30, 2026
≤0.0%
48%
0.1-0.3%
43%
0.4-0.6%
27%
0.7-0.9%
25%
1.0-1.2%
47%
1.3%+
44%
0.4-0.6% 51%
1.0-1.2% 47%
1.3%+ 44%
0.7-0.9% 25%
নতুন
নতুন
Jul 30, 2026
≤0.0%
$8 Vol.
48%
0.1-0.3%
$5 Vol.
43%
0.4-0.6%
$4 Vol.
27%
0.7-0.9%
$0 Vol.
25%
1.0-1.2%
$0 Vol.
47%
1.3%+
$0 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany’s Q2 2026 GDP growth outlook remains finely balanced, with Polymarket assigning nearly identical implied probabilities of 47.5 percent to both the ≤0.0 percent and 1.0-1.2 percent buckets. The primary catalyst is the German government’s late-April downgrade of its full-year 2026 forecast to just 0.5 percent, reflecting elevated energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict and their pass-through into higher inflation near 2.8 percent. Q1 delivered a solid 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion driven by consumption, yet softening industrial production, rising unemployment above three million, and weaker business sentiment indicators now point to moderation. Traders are closely monitoring the June CPI release and industrial output data for signals on whether fiscal support can offset these headwinds and support a modest rebound.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ET
ভলিউম
$17শেষ তারিখ
Jul 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Germany’s Q2 2026 GDP growth outlook remains finely balanced, with Polymarket assigning nearly identical implied probabilities of 47.5 percent to both the ≤0.0 percent and 1.0-1.2 percent buckets. The primary catalyst is the German government’s late-April downgrade of its full-year 2026 forecast to just 0.5 percent, reflecting elevated energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict and their pass-through into higher inflation near 2.8 percent. Q1 delivered a solid 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion driven by consumption, yet softening industrial production, rising unemployment above three million, and weaker business sentiment indicators now point to moderation. Traders are closely monitoring the June CPI release and industrial output data for signals on whether fiscal support can offset these headwinds and support a modest rebound.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q2 of 2026, expected to be released on July 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ভলিউম
$17শেষ তারিখ
Jul 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
May 4, 2026, 11:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Germany’s Q2 2026 GDP growth outlook remains finely balanced, with Polymarket assigning nearly identical implied probabilities of 47.5 percent to both the ≤0.0 percent and 1.0-1.2 percent buckets. The primary catalyst is the German government’s late-April downgrade of its full-year 2026 forecast to just 0.5 percent, reflecting elevated energy prices stemming from the Iran conflict and their pass-through into higher inflation near 2.8 percent. Q1 delivered a solid 0.3 percent quarter-on-quarter expansion driven by consumption, yet softening industrial production, rising unemployment above three million, and weaker business sentiment indicators now point to moderation. Traders are closely monitoring the June CPI release and industrial output data for signals on whether fiscal support can offset these headwinds and support a modest rebound.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা