Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP growth, measured year-over-year, sits at a near-even contest between the 0.6–0.8% and 0.9–1.1% bands because private forecasts cluster tightly around a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter advance. This pace translates to roughly 0.7–0.8% annualized and 0.8% year-over-year, supported by firm exports, a modest rebound in private consumption, and steady capital spending ahead of the May 19 preliminary release. Traders are pricing limited downside from Middle East tensions so far, while noting that any surprise shortfall in domestic demand or a sharper revision to prior quarters could shift the outcome toward the 0.3–0.5% bucket. The narrow spread between the two leading contracts reflects the market’s view that the data will land near the upper end of the consensus range but without enough conviction to break decisively higher.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড0.3–0.5% 18.0%
0.9–1.1% 15.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.3%
1.2%+ 3.1%
নতুন
নতুন
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
4%
0.0–0.2%
2%
0.3–0.5%
18%
0.6–0.8%
32%
0.9–1.1%
33%
1.2%+
3%
0.3–0.5% 18.0%
0.9–1.1% 15.0%
-0.3– -0.1% 4.3%
1.2%+ 3.1%
নতুন
নতুন
May 19, 2026
≤-0.4%
$1,057 Vol.
1%
-0.3– -0.1%
$650 Vol.
4%
0.0–0.2%
$994 Vol.
2%
0.3–0.5%
$792 Vol.
18%
0.6–0.8%
$447 Vol.
32%
0.9–1.1%
$683 Vol.
33%
1.2%+
$2,699 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q1 2026 real GDP growth, measured year-over-year, sits at a near-even contest between the 0.6–0.8% and 0.9–1.1% bands because private forecasts cluster tightly around a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter advance. This pace translates to roughly 0.7–0.8% annualized and 0.8% year-over-year, supported by firm exports, a modest rebound in private consumption, and steady capital spending ahead of the May 19 preliminary release. Traders are pricing limited downside from Middle East tensions so far, while noting that any surprise shortfall in domestic demand or a sharper revision to prior quarters could shift the outcome toward the 0.3–0.5% bucket. The narrow spread between the two leading contracts reflects the market’s view that the data will land near the upper end of the consensus range but without enough conviction to break decisively higher.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
ভলিউম
$7,322শেষ তারিখ
May 19, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q1 2026 real GDP growth, measured year-over-year, sits at a near-even contest between the 0.6–0.8% and 0.9–1.1% bands because private forecasts cluster tightly around a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter advance. This pace translates to roughly 0.7–0.8% annualized and 0.8% year-over-year, supported by firm exports, a modest rebound in private consumption, and steady capital spending ahead of the May 19 preliminary release. Traders are pricing limited downside from Middle East tensions so far, while noting that any surprise shortfall in domestic demand or a sharper revision to prior quarters could shift the outcome toward the 0.3–0.5% bucket. The narrow spread between the two leading contracts reflects the market’s view that the data will land near the upper end of the consensus range but without enough conviction to break decisively higher.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Year-over-Year, %) in the first quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office’s Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 19, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-2 ‘Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Original Series, Year-over-Year)’. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office’s GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Year-over-Year GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
ভলিউম
$7,322শেষ তারিখ
May 19, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 17, 2026, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Japan’s Q1 2026 real GDP growth, measured year-over-year, sits at a near-even contest between the 0.6–0.8% and 0.9–1.1% bands because private forecasts cluster tightly around a 0.5% quarter-on-quarter advance. This pace translates to roughly 0.7–0.8% annualized and 0.8% year-over-year, supported by firm exports, a modest rebound in private consumption, and steady capital spending ahead of the May 19 preliminary release. Traders are pricing limited downside from Middle East tensions so far, while noting that any surprise shortfall in domestic demand or a sharper revision to prior quarters could shift the outcome toward the 0.3–0.5% bucket. The narrow spread between the two leading contracts reflects the market’s view that the data will land near the upper end of the consensus range but without enough conviction to break decisively higher.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা