Guinea-Bissau’s upcoming December 6, 2026 presidential and legislative elections follow a November 2025 coup that ousted incumbent Umaro Sissoco Embaló after disputed results in which both he and independent candidate Fernando Dias da Costa claimed victory. A transitional military government under General Horta Inta-A Na Man, barred from contesting, now oversees the process amid an August 30 constitutional referendum that could shift the country toward a stronger presidential system. The fragmented field, with PAIGC endorsing Dias da Costa and numerous other entrants, has produced a closely matched top tier in trader pricing. Persistent political tensions, opposition detentions, ECOWAS mediation efforts, and uncertainty over inclusive transitional arrangements continue to sustain volatility without clear separation among frontrunners.