Official meteorological observations from Turkey’s State Meteorological Service confirmed a daily maximum temperature of 20 °C in Ankara on May 16, driving the market’s near-certain 100 % implied probability for that outcome. Springtime high-pressure systems and persistent cloud cover over central Anatolia kept surface temperatures from rising further, consistent with regional climatology where mid-May averages hover near 23 °C but recent frontal passages suppressed afternoon heating. Traders weighted the final verified reading heavily, assigning negligible odds to 21 °C or higher because no alternative model runs or station data suggested warmer conditions. A realistic shift would require a post-verification correction by the national weather agency, an event that remains rare once initial quality-controlled observations are released.