Ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and international models converge on a daily maximum near 28–29°C for Chengdu on May 17, producing the market’s tight clustering around those leading outcomes. A building high-pressure ridge supports subsidence and clearer skies that favor afternoon solar heating, while light northeast winds limit mixing and keep precipitation odds below 15 percent. Model spread remains narrow at this 24-hour lead, yet small differences in predicted cloud cover or boundary-layer moisture could shift the peak by 1°C either way—pushing it to 30°C under stronger insolation or capping it at 28°C if convection develops earlier than expected. This aligns with mid-May climatology at Shuangliu International Airport, where daily highs average 27–28°C, leaving the outcome sensitive to the final morning model run and real-time station readings.