Elevated inflation and a resilient labor market have driven trader consensus toward zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 at 79.8% implied probability. The June FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh held the fed funds target at 3.50%-3.75%, with updated projections lifting 2026 PCE inflation to 3.6% and showing nine officials favoring at least one hike by year-end. A blowout May jobs report reinforced the higher-for-longer stance, prompting economists to shift forecasts and markets to price out easing entirely for the balance of the year. Key upcoming catalysts include July and September FOMC decisions plus fresh CPI and employment data that could test whether inflation persistence justifies further tightening or opens a narrow path for a single 25-basis-point move.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডFed reaffirms steady rates at 3.5%-3.75%, no cuts in sight
Following the June meeting, the Fed's implementation note confirmed maintaining the interest rate paid on reserve balances and the federal funds rate target range. This reinforced market consensus that no rate cuts would occur in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in first meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh
0 (0 bps) rises to 79%2%
In June 2026, the Fed unanimously voted to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling a hawkish pivot and reducing expectations for any rate cuts in 2026. The updated dot plot showed many officials projecting possible rate hikes later in the year, reinforcing the market's view of zero cuts so far.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in June 2026 in first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh
The FOMC unanimously voted to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% during Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair. The statement removed prior easing language and indicated possible future rate hikes amid inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. The Fed maintained its policy of ample reserves.
Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in June 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) surges to 80%45%
The Fed continued its steady policy in June 2026, keeping rates unchanged to support its dual mandate. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 remained low following this decision.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in Kevin Warsh’s first meeting, signals possible hikes
0 (0 bps) rises to 80%4%
At the June 2026 meeting, the Fed maintained rates but shifted outlook, with projections indicating at least one rate hike later in the year. This marked a reversal from earlier expectations of cuts, reflecting concerns over inflation and a resilient labor market under new Chair Kevin Warsh.
Federal Reserve maintains interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%
0 (0 bps) jumps to 80%14%
The Federal Reserve announced on June 17, 2026, that it would keep the interest rate on reserve balances steady at 3.65%, effectively maintaining the federal funds rate target range unchanged. This decision reinforced the market's expectation of no rate cuts in 2026, reflected in the high price for zero cuts.
FOMC press conference with Chairman Warsh emphasizes steady policy
0 (0 bps) surges to 81%19%
At the June 17 press conference, Chairman Warsh underscored the Federal Reserve's commitment to its 2 percent inflation objective and steady monetary policy, reinforcing market expectations of no rate cuts in 2026.
Fed holds rates steady as Warsh signals rate hikes ahead
0 (0 bps) drops to 0%13%
The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, signaling a hawkish pivot and fewer expected rate cuts in 2026.
Fed Holds Rates Steady and Removes Easing Bias in First Meeting Under Kevin Warsh
0 (0 bps) rises to 80%3%
In Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chairman, the Fed kept rates unchanged, raised its inflation outlook, and removed language indicating a bias toward future cuts, signaling potential hikes instead.
Fed holds rates steady, signals possible hike under new Chair Warsh
0 (0 bps) rises to 79%2%
In the first FOMC meeting chaired by Kevin Warsh, the Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% and removed language suggesting easing bias. Projections shifted toward possible rate hikes later in 2026, further diminishing expectations for cuts this year.
Federal Reserve expected to hold rates steady at June 2026 FOMC meeting
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%1%
The Fed is widely expected to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026, continuing its cautious stance amid ongoing inflation concerns and geopolitical uncertainty. Market pricing reflects a strong probability of no rate cuts in 2026.
Fed signals only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) jumps to 80%10%
Following the June FOMC meeting, Fed projections indicated just one 25 bps rate cut for 2026, with inflation progress slower than expected and geopolitical risks influencing the cautious outlook. Market probabilities shifted strongly toward no cuts for the remainder of the year.
Fed keeps rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in first meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh
0 (0 bps) surges to 81%23%
The June 2026 FOMC meeting, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh, resulted in maintaining the federal funds rate target range. The Fed signaled a possible rate hike later in the year, reflecting a hawkish pivot and diminishing expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, signals possible hikes
0 (0 bps) rises to 80%3%
At the June 16-17 meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, citing solid economic activity and elevated inflation. The statement removed previous language suggesting rate cuts, instead indicating possible rate hikes later in the year, which further reduced market expectations for cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve maintains interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% in June 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) surges to 79%40%
The Fed unanimously voted to keep rates steady in June 2026, continuing its cautious stance amid ongoing economic uncertainties. No rate cuts occurred, maintaining the target range at 3.5%-3.75%.
Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, signals no cuts in near term
0 (0 bps) surges to 80%45%
In June 2026, the Fed again held rates steady, with new Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing the 2% inflation goal and steady policy. Market expectations shifted strongly toward no rate cuts for the remainder of 2026, reflecting persistent inflation and cautious Fed guidance.
Fed officials project only one 25 basis point rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) jumps to 19%11%
Fed projections released in mid-2026 indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting slower progress on inflation and economic uncertainties including geopolitical risks. This led markets to sharply reduce expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) surges to 80%23%
The Fed's economic projections indicated only one 25bps cut in 2026, with inflation progress slower than expected and uncertainty from geopolitical risks. This led markets to sharply increase the probability of zero cuts and reduce odds of multiple cuts.
Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%12%
Fed Chair Powell stated that progress on inflation will be slower than hoped, and the median projection showed just one 25 bps cut in 2026. Market expectations for cuts pulled back sharply, with probabilities for no cuts rising significantly after this announcement.
Philadelphia Fed President signals potential modest rate cut in late 2026
1 (25 bps) jumps to 22%5%
Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson indicated a conditional possibility of a modest additional rate cut in the second half of 2026, depending on economic performance. This statement influenced market speculation about a single cut rather than multiple cuts.
Goldman Sachs drops Fed rate cut forecast for 2026 on strong jobs data
0 (0 bps) jumps to 78%8%
Goldman Sachs economists pushed back their rate cut forecasts to 2027, predicting no rate cuts at all in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market.
Goldman Sachs no longer expects Fed rate cuts in 2026 due to strong labor market
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%9%
On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists revised their outlook, no longer expecting any Fed rate cuts in 2026, citing a stronger-than-expected labor market. This further solidified market pricing for zero cuts in 2026.
Goldman Sachs Revises Forecast, Expects No Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%10%
On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing expected cuts to 2027. This announcement sharply reduced market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Goldman Sachs Economists Abandon Forecast for 2026 Fed Rate Cuts
0 (0 bps) jumps to 77%9%
Following a stronger-than-expected labor market report, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Fed rate cuts in 2026, pushing their forecast to 2027.
Goldman Sachs Economists No Longer Expect Any Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%10%
Goldman Sachs revised its forecast to project zero rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing the probability of the '0 (0 bps)' outcome to near-certainty.
Goldman Sachs revises forecast, no Fed rate cuts expected in 2026
0 (0 bps) jumps to 77%7%
On June 7, 2026, Goldman Sachs economists announced they no longer expect any Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger-than-expected labor market, pushing expected cuts to 2027. This reflects a shift in market sentiment towards zero cuts for the year.
Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) surges to 79%25%
In early June 2026, the Fed's summary of economic projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut for the year, reflecting slower-than-expected inflation progress and geopolitical uncertainties. Market expectations shifted strongly toward zero or one cut, reducing probabilities for multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 79%9%
In early June 2026, the Fed's economic projections indicated only one 25 bps cut for the rest of the year, with inflation progress slower than hoped and geopolitical risks weighing. This led markets to sharply reduce odds of multiple cuts, pushing the zero cuts option price to near 80%.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 3%7%
In June 2026, the Fed's economic projections indicated only one 25 basis point cut for the remainder of the year, reflecting slower progress on inflation and uncertainty from geopolitical risks like the Iran war. This led markets to sharply reduce expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Kevin Warsh confirmed as new Federal Reserve Chair
0 (0 bps) surges to 56%18%
Kevin Warsh was confirmed by the Senate as the new Fed Chair in May 2026, succeeding Jerome Powell. His leadership marked a shift in communication style and policy outlook, with indications of a more hawkish stance and less forward guidance, which influenced market expectations away from rate cuts in 2026.
Goldman Sachs delays expected Fed rate cuts to late 2026 and 2027
0 (0 bps) jumps to 70%14%
Goldman Sachs revised its forecast, no longer expecting any Fed rate cuts in 2026 due to a stronger labor market and elevated inflation risks, pushing expected cuts to December 2026 and beyond. This influenced market pricing toward zero cuts in 2026.
BofA and Goldman Sachs push back Fed rate-cut expectations to late 2026 and 2027
0 (0 bps) surges to 70%33%
In May 2026, major banks revised their forecasts, delaying expected Fed rate cuts due to elevated inflation and a strong labor market. Goldman Sachs pushed back cuts to December 2026 and March 2027, while BofA expects no cuts in 2026, reflecting growing market skepticism about rate reductions this year.
Fed rate cut hopes diminish amid surging inflation and geopolitical tensions
0 (0 bps) rises to 14%3%
Rising inflation expectations and geopolitical risks, including the US-Israeli war with Iran, led to increased concerns about persistent price pressures, reducing market optimism for rate cuts in 2026.
Rate cut hopes dim amid surging inflation and geopolitical tensions
0 (0 bps) surges to 70%54%
Rising inflation expectations and the impact of the US-Israeli war with Iran led to increased concerns about persistent price pressures. Fed officials showed internal dissent against easing bias, reducing market expectations for rate cuts in 2026.
Rising inflation and geopolitical tensions dim hopes for Fed rate cuts in 2026
0 (0 bps) surges to 80%23%
By May 2026, surging inflation expectations and supply chain pressures linked to the Iran war led to increased skepticism about Fed rate cuts. Internal Fed dissent against easing and rising commodity prices pushed markets to sharply lower the probability of any cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve rate cut hopes dim amid surging inflation and geopolitical risks
0 (0 bps) surges to 77%21%
Amid rising inflation expectations and the economic impact of the Iran war, optimism for Fed rate cuts in 2026 diminished sharply. Fed officials showed internal dissent against easing, and market indicators reflected increased inflation risks, leading to a collapse in the probability of multiple rate cuts.
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Hopes Dim as Inflation Expectations Surge to Three-Year High
0 (0 bps) jumps to 70%14%
Long-term inflation expectations surged due to supply chain disruptions from the US-Israeli war with Iran, prompting three Fed officials to publicly argue that a rate hike is increasingly probable.
Federal Reserve implements policy to maintain federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%
0 (0 bps) drops to 31%9%
Following the April FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve directed the Open Market Desk to undertake operations to maintain the federal funds rate target range, reinforcing the no-cut stance and supporting market pricing of zero rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged in April FOMC statement amid inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) surges to 69%30%
The April 29, 2026 FOMC statement reiterated the decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, noting solid economic activity and elevated inflation partly due to global energy prices. The Committee remained cautious, with some dissenters opposing an easing bias, reinforcing market confidence in no rate cuts for 2026.
Federal Reserve keeps federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in April meeting
On April 28-29, 2026, the Federal Reserve again maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, signaling no immediate rate cuts. The Fed noted that market participants expected little change in rates for the year, with some anticipation of rate cuts later in 2026 or early 2027, reflecting a cautious outlook amid moderate economic conditions.
FOMC minutes reveal cautious tone, delay in expected rate cuts
1 (25 bps) dips to 24%3%
The April 2026 FOMC minutes showed officials expected rate cuts later in the year, but delayed from earlier projections, reflecting uncertainty and a cautious approach amid persistent inflation.
Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75% in April statement
0 (0 bps) rises to 41%2%
The Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged, citing solid economic activity and stable labor market conditions. This decision further diminished market expectations for rate cuts in 2026, reflected in rising probabilities for zero cuts.
FOMC minutes reiterate steady federal funds rate target range
0 (0 bps) jumps to 28%12%
On April 28-29, 2026, the FOMC again voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, with no rate cuts. Market surveys indicated expectations of possible rate cuts later in 2026, but none were implemented by this date.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid internal dissent
0 (0 bps) surges to 35%21%
At the April 2026 meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged despite four officials dissenting, the highest dissent level since 1992. Chair Powell confirmed this was his final meeting, adding uncertainty. The Fed emphasized data dependency for future cuts, maintaining a cautious outlook.
Federal Reserve Leaves Rates Unchanged and Signals Delayed Easing
0 (0 bps) surges to 56%21%
The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, with survey data showing market participants pushing back their expectations for rate cuts to late 2026.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% with rare dissent and Powell’s exit announcement
0 (0 bps) jumps to 18%5%
In April 2026, the Fed kept rates unchanged but revealed internal disagreement with four dissenters, the highest since 1992. Chair Jerome Powell announced his upcoming departure, adding uncertainty. The Fed signaled caution amid persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions, maintaining expectations for limited rate cuts.
Federal Reserve meeting expected to hold rates amid inflation and geopolitical risks
Ahead of the April 28-29, 2026 meeting, markets widely expected the Fed to keep rates steady due to inflation near 4.7% and oil price pressures from Iran tensions. This cautious stance reinforced market views that rate cuts in 2026 would be limited or delayed.
Unusually divided Federal Reserve holds rates steady as four members dissent
0 (0 bps) surges to 58%24%
The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, but the decision saw a rare four dissents, with some members objecting to the inclusion of an easing bias in the statement.
FOMC minutes reveal delayed expectations for rate cuts
The April 2026 FOMC minutes indicated that while the median forecast still included two 25 basis point rate cuts over the next year, these cuts were expected later in 2026, reflecting ongoing inflation and geopolitical uncertainties. The Fed maintained rates at 3.50% to 3.75%.
FOMC meeting results show no rate change, dissent among policymakers
0 (0 bps) surges to 77%39%
The April 29, 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in a decision to keep rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with four dissenters favoring cuts. The minutes indicated market expectations for rate cuts shifted later in the year, with no immediate easing, reflecting ongoing inflation and geopolitical uncertainties.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in April 2026 with divided vote
The FOMC voted 8-4 to keep rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, reflecting concerns about persistent inflation and geopolitical risks. The decision marked the last meeting chaired by Jerome Powell. The Fed signaled caution on future rate cuts amid elevated inflation and energy prices.
FOMC April 2026 meeting ends with unanimous vote to hold rates steady
0 (0 bps) surges to 41%16%
The Fed voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in April 2026, with four dissenters opposing an easing bias. The statement highlighted inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainty, reinforcing market pricing of zero cuts in 2026.
FOMC statement maintains federal funds rate, signals cautious outlook
0 (0 bps) jumps to 40%9%
On April 29, 2026, the FOMC decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, noting economic activity expanding at a solid pace but acknowledging uncertainty from geopolitical developments. Market expectations for rate cuts in 2026 remained low following this statement.
Federal Reserve Maintains Interest Rates Amid Persistent Inflation and Geopolitical Uncertainty
0 (0 bps) surges to 48%17%
At the April meeting, the Fed again held rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing elevated inflation and uncertainty from rising energy prices linked to the Middle East conflict. The decision was not unanimous, with several dissenters favoring a rate cut, but the majority remained cautious about easing policy while inflation remains above target.
Four Fed policymakers dissent as central bank pauses rates again
0 (0 bps) surges to 57%19%
The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but a surprise development saw four policymakers dissent, signaling deep internal divisions and a shift toward a more hawkish stance.
Fed holds rates steady amid inflation and geopolitical risks
The April 29 FOMC meeting concluded with an 8-4 vote to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with some dissent for a cut. The Fed acknowledged persistent inflation risks and geopolitical uncertainties, particularly from the Middle East conflict, which kept rate cuts off the table for the near term.
Fed Chair Powell signals no immediate rate cuts despite inflation risks
0 (0 bps) dips to 12%2%
In a speech at Harvard University, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that inflation expectations remain grounded despite rising energy prices from the Middle East conflict, indicating no need for immediate rate hikes or cuts. This statement contributed to market confidence in a steady rate policy for 2026.
Federal Reserve Pauses Rates Amid Middle East Conflict and Elevated Inflation
0 (0 bps) jumps to 29%10%
The Fed kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, citing persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and economic uncertainty surrounding the war in the Middle East.
Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% citing inflation uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 23%14%
The March 18 FOMC meeting resulted in the Fed maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate, highlighting ongoing inflation uncertainty and energy price volatility. This reinforced market expectations of limited or delayed rate cuts in 2026.
FOMC minutes confirm decision to hold rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75%
0 (0 bps) jumps to 18%7%
The March 17-18 FOMC meeting minutes confirmed the Committee's unanimous decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range unchanged, reinforcing the market view that no rate cuts would occur in early 2026. This contributed to a rise in the market price for zero rate cuts.
FOMC holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation uncertainty
0 (0 bps) surges to 23%16%
At the March 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, citing ongoing inflation uncertainty and energy price volatility. This decision reinforced market expectations of limited or delayed rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% in March 2026 meeting
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% during the March 2026 FOMC meeting, continuing a cautious approach amid persistent inflation and economic uncertainty, dampening expectations for near-term cuts.
Federal Reserve keeps rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% amid cautious optimism
0 (0 bps) jumps to 17%10%
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate target range unchanged, reflecting a cautious approach as the Fed awaited clearer signals on inflation and labor market conditions. Market expectations for cuts remained low following this decision.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid Iran conflict and inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%1%
The Fed maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in March 2026, citing the oil price surge from the Iran conflict as a major inflation risk. This geopolitical development reduced market expectations for rate cuts in 2026, shifting the outlook to 'higher for longer' rates.
Federal Reserve leaves benchmark interest rate unchanged for second straight meeting
1 (25 bps) jumps to 36%8%
The FOMC voted to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing elevated uncertainty about the economic outlook and Middle East developments.
FOMC holds rates steady amid inflation uncertainty and geopolitical risks
0 (0 bps) jumps to 14%6%
The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in no rate change, with the Fed emphasizing the need for more data before cutting rates. Market expectations for cuts in 2026 were tempered by inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict.
Fed keeps rates unchanged, highlights inflation challenges
0 (0 bps) rises to 14%4%
The March 18 FOMC meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, with the Fed emphasizing ongoing inflation pressures, including tariff-driven price hikes and energy price increases due to the Middle East conflict. This reinforced market expectations of a steady rate environment in 2026.
Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, signals cautious outlook
1 (25 bps) rises to 17%1%
On March 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing inflation uncertainty and energy prices. The Summary of Economic Projections continued to show a median forecast of one rate cut in 2026, maintaining market expectations for limited easing.
Fed maintains rates at 3.5%-3.75%, emphasizes data-driven approach amid global uncertainties
0 (0 bps) rises to 13%3%
At the March FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates steady, highlighting inflation uncertainty and geopolitical risks, including Middle East tensions. The unanimous vote to hold rates reinforced market expectations of no immediate cuts, with the Fed emphasizing careful assessment of incoming data before any policy changes.
Fed officials project only one rate cut in 2026 amid policy divisions
1 (25 bps) plunges to 14%16%
Fed policymakers showed a divided outlook but generally projected only one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting uncertainty and caution. This official guidance influenced market pricing toward fewer cuts.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady, signals one cut ahead in 2026
1 (25 bps) rises to 14%2%
The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% in March 2026, citing persistent inflation and economic uncertainty including geopolitical risks. The updated projections showed only one quarter-point cut expected in 2026, maintaining a cautious outlook amid mixed economic signals.
Fed keeps rates unchanged as war in Middle East and inflation weigh on outlook
0 (0 bps) surges to 31%15%
The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in an 11-1 vote, citing persistent inflation, rising oil prices, and uncertainty surrounding the Iran war.
Federal Reserve maintains rates steady amid elevated inflation and labor market softness
0 (0 bps) dips to 6%1%
The Fed held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, noting economic activity expanding at a solid pace but inflation remaining somewhat elevated. The statement highlighted downside risks to employment and uncertainty about the economic outlook, with one dissenting vote favoring a 25 basis point cut. This further dampened market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
FOMC holds rates steady, Powell press conference influences market expectations
1 (25 bps) jumps to 18%9%
The Fed maintained rates at 3.5%-3.75% during the March 2026 meeting, with Chair Powell's cautious language leading markets to expect rate cuts only in the second half of the year, if at all.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in March 2026 amid inflation and geopolitical concerns
The FOMC maintained the federal funds rate at 3.50%–3.75% amid persistent inflation above target and uncertainty from the Iran conflict. The committee was divided, with one dissenting vote favoring a rate cut. Chair Powell emphasized data dependency and the need to monitor evolving economic conditions.
FOMC minutes confirm no change in federal funds rate in March meeting
0 (0 bps) jumps to 23%6%
The FOMC minutes from March 17-18, 2026, show the Committee voted unanimously to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%, continuing the steady policy stance and signaling no rate cuts in early 2026.
Fed keeps rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, signals cautious stance
0 (0 bps) jumps to 21%14%
The March 2026 FOMC statement reiterated the decision to maintain the federal funds rate target range, emphasizing careful assessment of incoming data amid global uncertainties. The Fed's cautious stance reinforced market expectations of no immediate rate cuts.
FOMC March meeting holds rates steady, markets await Powell's guidance
1 (25 bps) drops to 25%6%
The March 2026 FOMC meeting ended with no rate change amid cautious inflation progress. Chair Powell's press conference was closely watched for signals on future cuts, but the Fed remained data-dependent, tempering immediate expectations for rate reductions.
Fed keeps rates unchanged amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 27%8%
On March 18, 2026, the Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, citing persistent inflation above target and uncertainty from the Iran war. The Summary of Economic Projections indicated only one 25 basis point cut expected in 2026, leading markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve maintains rates at 3.5% to 3.75% after March 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) jumps to 13%6%
The Fed kept rates steady in March 2026, continuing its cautious approach amid mixed economic signals. The FOMC minutes showed unanimous support for maintaining the current rate range.
Federal Reserve Projects Only One Rate Cut for 2026 Amid Economic Uncertainty
1 (25 bps) jumps to 31%13%
The Fed left interest rates unchanged and released economic projections showing the median participant expects only one 25 basis point rate cut in 2026, causing markets to pull back easing expectations.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid economic uncertainty
0 (0 bps) jumps to 16%8%
The March 2026 FOMC meeting resulted in no rate change, with the Fed emphasizing inflation uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Market expectations for rate cuts were reduced, reflecting the Fed's cautious stance and signaling only one cut in 2026.
Fed projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) jumps to 19%7%
The Federal Reserve's summary of economic projections indicated a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting slower-than-expected progress on inflation and ongoing economic uncertainties, which led markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at March 2026 FOMC meeting
0 (0 bps) rises to 11%3%
The Fed kept rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% during the March meeting, with the Summary of Economic Projections still signaling one 25 bps cut by end of 2026, but markets priced near-zero probability of cuts in the near term.
Fed Official Beth Hammack Signals Interest Rates Could Remain Steady for Long Time
0 (0 bps) rises to 8%2%
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that the current monetary policy is appropriate and that interest rates could remain unchanged for an extended period. This reinforced market expectations of no imminent rate cuts in early 2026 amid cautious optimism about the economy.
Fed official signals interest rates could remain steady for a long time
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%2%
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated that interest rates could remain at current levels for an extended period, supporting market expectations of no immediate cuts in early 2026.
Fed signals only one rate cut in 2026 amid slower inflation progress and economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) dips to 14%4%
In February 2026, Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the FOMC projected just one 25 bps rate cut for the year, citing slower-than-expected inflation progress and uncertainty from geopolitical risks like the Iran war. This tempered market expectations, reducing the probability of multiple cuts.
Fed eyes 2026 rate cuts amid cooling inflation
1 (25 bps) rises to 17%4%
Economic reports in early 2026 showed disinflation trends, leading analysts to expect the Federal Reserve might have room to ease policy with rate cuts during the year. This bolstered market hopes for cuts, though the Fed remained data-dependent and cautious.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bps to 3.5%-3.75% amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%5%
The Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in early 2026, citing moderate economic expansion, a softening labor market, and elevated inflation. This move signaled a possible shift toward easing but also reflected caution due to economic uncertainties, influencing market expectations for limited cuts in 2026.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller dissents favoring 25 bps cut at January FOMC
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%2%
Governor Christopher Waller dissented at the January 2026 FOMC meeting, advocating a 25 basis point rate cut due to concerns about labor market weakness and the need for further easing. His dissent highlighted internal Fed debate but did not change the overall decision to hold rates.
Fed Governor Waller advocates for rate cut amid weak labor market
Governor Christopher J. Waller dissented at the January FOMC meeting, arguing that a 25 basis point rate cut was appropriate due to labor market weakness and economic data. Despite his stance, the Fed did not cut rates, maintaining a cautious approach that kept market expectations for cuts moderate.
Fed Governor Waller dissents, calls for 25 bps rate cut amid labor market weakness
0 (0 bps) rises to 9%2%
Governor Christopher J. Waller dissented at the recent FOMC meeting, advocating for a 25 basis point cut due to a fragile labor market and economic data indicating the need for further easing. Despite his stance, the Fed did not cut rates, maintaining market uncertainty about future cuts.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, signaling pause in rate cuts
0 (0 bps) rises to 8%4%
In January 2026, the Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign, holding rates steady and signaling a shift to a neutral stance. This decision dampened expectations for multiple cuts in 2026 and reflected caution amid ongoing inflation and economic data.
Fed signals pause on rate cuts, emphasizing neutral policy stance
The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign in late January 2026, holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%. Chair Powell described the policy stance as close to neutral, signaling a watchful waiting approach amid ongoing inflation and labor market concerns. This reinforced market expectations of no immediate cuts.
Federal Reserve signals pause on rate cuts after three consecutive reductions
0 (0 bps) rises to 10%3%
Following the January meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated the rate-cutting campaign was paused, describing policy as close to neutral. This cautious stance led markets to reduce expectations for further cuts in 2026, with the Fed emphasizing data dependency amid persistent inflation and a fragile labor market.
Federal Reserve pauses rate cuts, holding rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%
0 (0 bps) jumps to 16%13%
The Fed paused its rate-cutting campaign after three consecutive cuts, signaling a shift to a neutral stance amid solid economic expansion and persistent inflation. This decision reinforced market expectations for fewer or no cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady, pausing rate cuts
0 (0 bps) jumps to 8%5%
The Fed decided to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, ending a streak of three consecutive cuts. Chair Powell indicated the policy stance is now neutral, causing markets to reduce expectations for further cuts in 2026, increasing the probability of zero cuts.
Federal Reserve signals end to aggressive rate-cutting campaign
The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in late January 2026, ending the streak of cuts and framing policy as close to neutral. This reinforced market expectations that rate cuts in 2026 would be limited or absent.
FOMC holds rates steady, signals possible rate cuts later in 2026
1 (25 bps) rises to 13%4%
The Federal Reserve's January 2026 meeting resulted in no change to the federal funds rate, maintaining the target range at 3.5% to 3.75%. Market expectations included one to two 25 basis point rate cuts later in the year, reflecting cautious optimism about inflation progress and economic resilience.
FOMC January 2026 meeting holds rates steady amid inflation and cooling job market
The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026, signaling a pause after the 2025 cuts. Market participants closely watched for signals on future cuts, but the Fed emphasized data dependency and uncertainty.
Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady in January 2026
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%2%
After three consecutive rate cuts in late 2025, the Federal Reserve paused rate cuts and held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%. The decision reflected ongoing inflation pressures and a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties. Two FOMC members dissented, favoring a 25 basis point cut.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) rises to 4%1%
After three consecutive cuts in late 2025, the Fed paused rate cuts in January 2026, maintaining the target range at 3.50%-3.75%. The decision reflected ongoing inflation pressures and signs of labor market stabilization, with two dissenters favoring a cut.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in January 2026 meeting
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%3%
In its first 2026 meeting, the Fed held rates steady, with a 92%+ probability of no change. Despite expectations for cuts, the Fed maintained a cautious approach amid inflation and economic uncertainty, tempering market expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January meeting
1 (25 bps) dips to 9%2%
At the January 28, 2026 FOMC meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50%-3.75%, continuing its cautious approach amid solid economic growth and persistent inflation. This reinforced the market view of limited rate cuts in 2026.
FOMC maintains federal funds rate target range at 3.5% to 3.75%
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%4%
The Federal Reserve announced no change to the target range for the federal funds rate, maintaining the rate steady and signaling no immediate cuts. This decision supported market pricing of fewer rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve Pauses Rate Cuts, Holding Benchmark Rate Steady
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%2%
The FOMC voted 10-2 to keep the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, halting its streak of consecutive cuts and signaling a shift to neutral ground.
Federal Reserve maintains federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% in January meeting
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%4%
The Federal Reserve Board of Governors voted unanimously to keep the interest rate paid on reserve balances at 3.65%, maintaining the target range for the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. This decision signaled no rate cuts at the start of 2026, influencing market expectations accordingly.
FOMC minutes reveal divided views on inflation and rate cuts
0 (0 bps) rises to 6%3%
Minutes from the January 27-28, 2026 FOMC meeting showed concern about persistent inflation and a divided committee, with some members preferring further cuts while others awaited more data. The Fed held rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, reflecting uncertainty about the timing of future cuts and inflation risks.
Fed holds rates steady amid inflation and cooling job market
1 (25 bps) drops to 9%5%
At the January 2026 FOMC meeting, the Fed kept rates unchanged, signaling caution and the need for more data before cutting rates. This tempered expectations for immediate cuts in 2026.
Fed Vice Chair Bowman highlights fragile labor market and inflation progress
0 (0 bps) rises to 7%4%
Vice Chair Bowman emphasized the economy's growth and inflation nearing target but warned of labor market fragility, suggesting cautious monetary policy without immediate rate cuts. This reinforced market expectations for limited or no rate cuts in 2026.
Fed ends 2025 with three rate cuts, markets price two more in 2026
2 (50 bps) drops to 28%8%
By the end of 2025, the Fed had cut rates three times by 25 basis points each, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%. Market participants expected two additional 25bps cuts in 2026 amid economic challenges including inflation and a softening job market.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025
1 (25 bps) dips to 7%4%
The Fed announced a 25 bps rate cut in December 2025, marking the third consecutive cut after prior reductions in September and November. This final 2025 cut reflected concerns over slowing job growth and inflation pressures, setting the stage for market expectations of limited cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps in December 2025, final cut of the year
The Fed announced a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025, the third consecutive cut, lowering the target range to 3.50%-3.75%. This reinforced market expectations for additional cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve projects only one rate cut in 2026 amid economic uncertainty
1 (25 bps) drops to 22%14%
The Fed's December 2025 Summary of Economic Projections showed a median forecast of just one 25 basis point cut in 2026, reflecting slower progress on inflation and economic uncertainty. This led markets to reduce expectations for multiple cuts.
Fed cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025
The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points on December 10, 2025, marking the third rate reduction of the year. This move was intended to support the economy amid mixed inflation and labor market signals, but the Fed signaled a pause on further cuts until clearer data emerged, tempering expectations for multiple cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates for third consecutive meeting to 3.5%-3.75%
In December 2025, the Fed made a third consecutive 25 basis point cut, lowering rates to 3.5%-3.75%. This decision was amid moderate economic expansion but rising inflation and unemployment risks. The move was not unanimous, reflecting some division within the Fed on the pace of cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bps to 3.5%-3.75%
The Fed delivered its third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025, lowering the target range to 3.5%-3.75%. This final cut of 2025 was driven by slowing job growth and elevated inflation, with projections suggesting only one additional cut in 2026.
Federal Reserve holds rates steady amid economic uncertainty and inflation concerns
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%2%
The Fed left rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75% in December 2025, signaling caution due to inflation remaining above target and uncertainty from geopolitical risks. This pause tempered market expectations for multiple rate cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points in December 2025 meeting
2 (50 bps) drops to 22%14%
In December 2025, the Fed lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, marking the start of a series of cuts aimed at supporting the economy. This move set the stage for market expectations of further cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates for third time in 2025, signals cautious outlook for 2026
1 (25 bps) drops to 21%5%
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points in December 2025, marking the third cut that year, but policymakers showed division on future cuts amid inflation concerns and labor market weakness. This set early expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026.
Fed cuts federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%
The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points in December 2025, signaling a cautious easing to support economic activity and stabilize labor market conditions. This cut set the stage for market expectations of potential further cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in December 2025
3 (75 bps) dips to 21%2%
The FOMC voted to cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%–3.75%, the third consecutive cut in 2025. The decision was driven by elevated risks to the labor market and inflation, with the Fed signaling a neutral policy stance. This marked the lowest rate level since November 2022.
Federal Reserve cuts benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in December 2025
The Fed implemented a 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025, marking the third consecutive cut that year and lowering the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%. This move initially signaled potential for further cuts in 2026, influencing market expectations.
Federal Reserve cuts target range for federal funds rate by 25 basis points
0 (0 bps) drops to 8%13%
On December 10, 2025, the Fed lowered the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% to 3.75%, marking part of a series of cuts aimed at supporting the labor market while managing inflation risks. This action reflected concerns about slowing job gains and elevated inflation, influencing market expectations for further cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts rates for third consecutive time, signals pause
3 (75 bps) dips to 21%2%
In December 2025, the Fed cut rates by another 25 bps to 3.5%-3.75%, the third consecutive cut, but signaled a pause and highlighted uncertainty due to incomplete economic data and internal divisions, tempering expectations for aggressive cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve delivers third consecutive 25bps rate cut in December 2025
The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third cut in 2025. This move was supported by most officials but faced dissent from some members favoring either a larger cut or no change. The cut aimed to support a softening labor market amid persistent inflation.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points
The Fed lowered the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.50%–3.75% in December 2025, marking the third consecutive cut amid slowing job gains and elevated inflation. This move set the stage for market expectations of potential further cuts in 2026, though the Fed emphasized caution and data dependency.
Federal Reserve cuts rates but signals likely pause and projects only one cut in 2026
0 (0 bps) rises to 5%3%
The Federal Reserve delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut but issued new economic projections showing that the median policymaker expects only one quarter-point reduction in 2026, prompting markets to scale back expectations of aggressive easing.
Federal Reserve cuts federal funds rate by 25 basis points
1 (25 bps) drops to 14%12%
The Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points to 3.50%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive reduction in 2025. The Fed signaled one additional rate cut projected for 2026, reflecting concerns over a slowing labor market and elevated inflation.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%
1 (25 bps) drops to 16%10%
The Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in December 2025, marking the third consecutive cut since September. The move reflected concerns over slowing job gains and elevated inflation, with projections indicating only one additional cut in 2026. This action initially supported market expectations for some easing in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points in December 2025 meeting
The Fed implemented a third consecutive 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025, lowering the target range to 3.50%-3.75%. The decision was made despite internal divisions and ongoing inflation concerns, continuing the easing trend from late 2025.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in final 2025 meeting
0 (0 bps) surges to 81%60%
The Fed cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75% in December 2025, marking the third cut that year and setting the stage for the starting rate level in 2026. This move was driven by a cooling labor market and limited economic data due to a government shutdown, influencing market expectations for future rate actions.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third time in 2025 to 3.5%-3.75%
1 (25 bps) rises to 14%4%
The Fed cut rates by 25bps for the third time in 2025, lowering borrowing costs amid moderate economic expansion and inflation above target. This reinforced market expectations for limited rate cuts in 2026, with some dissent among Fed members reflecting uncertainty.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third time in 2025
5 (125 bps) plunges to 10%26%
In early December 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points again to a range of 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third cut that year. This move was aimed at supporting a slowing labor market and moderating inflation, reinforcing expectations for limited cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third time in 2025 to 3.5%-3.75%
2 (50 bps) dips to 23%2%
The Fed cut rates by 25 bps in December 2025, marking the third cut that year, aiming to support a slowing economy and a flagging job market. This reinforced market expectations for some easing but also highlighted internal Fed divisions and uncertainty about future cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 bps in December 2025, final cut of the year
1 (25 bps) rises to 11%4%
The Fed announced a 25-basis-point cut in December 2025, the third consecutive reduction following earlier cuts in September and November. This move aimed to support economic activity amid slowing job growth and inflation pressures, reinforcing market expectations for limited cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts key benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points in October
2 (50 bps) plunges to 16%20%
The Fed reduced rates by another 25 bps to 3.75%–4.00%, the second consecutive cut in 2025, reflecting concerns about inflation and labor market conditions. Market expectations for further cuts increased but with some dissent among officials.
Federal Reserve lowers interest rates by 25 bps in second cut of the year
2 (50 bps) drops to 20%6%
The Fed announced a second 25 basis point rate cut in 2025, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75–4.0%. This reinforced market expectations for further easing, including potential cuts in 2026.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%
On October 29, 2025, the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, aiming to support economic growth and the labor market amid slowing job gains and elevated inflation.
Federal Reserve announces second 25 bps rate cut of 2025
2 (50 bps) drops to 25%11%
The Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 4.0–4.25%, marking the second cut of the year. This move initially supported expectations for further cuts, influencing market pricing for 2026 rate cuts.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25bps to 3.75%-4.00%, signaling easing cycle
5 (125 bps) plunges to 7%29%
The Fed cut rates by another 25 basis points in October 2025, lowering the federal funds rate to the lowest level since late 2022. This second consecutive cut confirmed the start of an easing cycle, with the Fed aiming to balance inflation control and economic growth amid ongoing uncertainty.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025
2 (50 bps) jumps to 26%6%
The FOMC reduced the federal funds rate by another 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the second cut in 2025. The decision was supported by most members, with some dissenting opinions. The move aimed to support economic growth amid inflation concerns and labor market weakness.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points in October 2025 meeting
The Fed reduced the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in October 2025, marking the second consecutive cut amid concerns over inflation and a weakening labor market. This move was part of a series of cuts signaling easing monetary policy in late 2025.
Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%
The Fed initiated a rate cut in late 2025, signaling the start of an easing cycle with a 25 bps reduction. This move set the stage for market expectations of potential further cuts in 2026, although uncertainty remained about the pace and extent of easing.
Federal Reserve delivers second consecutive 25 basis point rate cut
4 (100 bps) plunges to 11%25%
The Fed cut rates by another 25 basis points in late October 2025, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. This confirmed the easing cycle and raised expectations for further cuts, influencing market pricing for 2026 rate cuts.
Federal Reserve announces 25 basis point rate cut amid economic pressures
In September 2025, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points, the first reduction in some time, signaling a positive but cautious direction for inflation and borrowing costs. This move raised market hopes for further cuts in 2026, influencing derivative hedging demand and rate-sensitive sectors.
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points amid easing inflation
2 (50 bps) plunges to 20%16%
The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the start of an easing cycle as inflation showed signs of abating. This move was seen as a cautious step to balance inflation control with economic support, influencing market expectations for future cuts.
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