Polymarket traders price a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment after April 2026 CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%—driven by broad price pressures and energy costs amid Iran-related oil shocks. Solid April nonfarm payrolls at 115,000, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signal resilient labor markets incompatible with easing, aligning with the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range held since prior cuts paused. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs recently delayed forecasts beyond 2026, while futures imply potential steady or higher rates. Key catalysts include May FOMC minutes and June policy meeting.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড০ (০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 69.2%
১ (২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 17%
২ (৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 7%
৩ (৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 3.0%
$25,902,728 Vol.
$25,902,728 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
০ (০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
69%
১ (২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
17%
২ (৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
7%
৩ (৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
3%
৪ (১০০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
1%
৫ (১২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
1%
৬ (১৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
1%
৭ (১৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
<1%
৮ (২০০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
<1%
৯ (২২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
<1%
১০ (২৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
<1%
১১ (২৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
<1%
১২+ (৩০০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
1%
০ (০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 69.2%
১ (২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 17%
২ (৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 7%
৩ (৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট) 3.0%
$25,902,728 Vol.
$25,902,728 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
০ (০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$4,054,821 Vol.
69%
১ (২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,212,602 Vol.
17%
২ (৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,170,364 Vol.
7%
৩ (৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,063,352 Vol.
3%
৪ (১০০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,142,420 Vol.
1%
৫ (১২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,377,071 Vol.
1%
৬ (১৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$2,433,140 Vol.
1%
৭ (১৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,089,692 Vol.
<1%
৮ (২০০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$1,684,282 Vol.
<1%
৯ (২২৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$2,400,417 Vol.
<1%
১০ (২৫০ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$3,010,173 Vol.
<1%
১১ (২৭৫ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$3,178,280 Vol.
<1%
১২+ (৩০০+ বেসিস পয়েন্ট)
$2,086,465 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment after April 2026 CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%—driven by broad price pressures and energy costs amid Iran-related oil shocks. Solid April nonfarm payrolls at 115,000, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signal resilient labor markets incompatible with easing, aligning with the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range held since prior cuts paused. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs recently delayed forecasts beyond 2026, while futures imply potential steady or higher rates. Key catalysts include May FOMC minutes and June policy meeting.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET
ভলিউম
$25,902,728শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Polymarket traders price a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment after April 2026 CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%—driven by broad price pressures and energy costs amid Iran-related oil shocks. Solid April nonfarm payrolls at 115,000, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signal resilient labor markets incompatible with easing, aligning with the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range held since prior cuts paused. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs recently delayed forecasts beyond 2026, while futures imply potential steady or higher rates. Key catalysts include May FOMC minutes and June policy meeting.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
ভলিউম
$25,902,728শেষ তারিখ
Dec 31, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 69.3% implied probability of zero Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, reflecting hawkish sentiment after April 2026 CPI surged 3.8% year-over-year—the hottest since May 2023 and up from March's 3.3%—driven by broad price pressures and energy costs amid Iran-related oil shocks. Solid April nonfarm payrolls at 115,000, with unemployment steady at 4.3%, signal resilient labor markets incompatible with easing, aligning with the Fed's current 3.50%-3.75% target range held since prior cuts paused. Bank of America and Goldman Sachs recently delayed forecasts beyond 2026, while futures imply potential steady or higher rates. Key catalysts include May FOMC minutes and June policy meeting.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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