Heightened Houthi threats and renewed attacks on commercial vessels have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving Polymarket traders to assign the highest implied probability (46%) to fewer than 180 ships for the week of August 10. A recent strike on the cargo ship Tihamah off Yemen’s coast on August 12, which killed several seafarers, reinforced risk aversion and prompted further rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Weekly volumes had already stabilized near 260–270 earlier in August after July’s 24% drop tied to the Saudi shipping blockade, yet persistent security concerns and elevated insurance costs continue to suppress activity. This environment favors the 180–199 band (23%) as the next most likely outcome while capping upside scenarios above 220 at just 14.5%.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of August 10?
<180 46%
180-199 23%
220+ 15%
200-219 9.9%
$10,917 Vol.
$10,917 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
46%
180-199
23%
200-219
7%
220+
15%
<180 46%
180-199 23%
220+ 15%
200-219 9.9%
$10,917 Vol.
$10,917 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<180
$5,293 Vol.
46%
180-199
$1,839 Vol.
23%
200-219
$749 Vol.
7%
220+
$3,036 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi threats and renewed attacks on commercial vessels have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving Polymarket traders to assign the highest implied probability (46%) to fewer than 180 ships for the week of August 10. A recent strike on the cargo ship Tihamah off Yemen’s coast on August 12, which killed several seafarers, reinforced risk aversion and prompted further rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Weekly volumes had already stabilized near 260–270 earlier in August after July’s 24% drop tied to the Saudi shipping blockade, yet persistent security concerns and elevated insurance costs continue to suppress activity. This environment favors the 180–199 band (23%) as the next most likely outcome while capping upside scenarios above 220 at just 14.5%.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
ভলিউম
$10,917শেষ তারিখ
Aug 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Heightened Houthi threats and renewed attacks on commercial vessels have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving Polymarket traders to assign the highest implied probability (46%) to fewer than 180 ships for the week of August 10. A recent strike on the cargo ship Tihamah off Yemen’s coast on August 12, which killed several seafarers, reinforced risk aversion and prompted further rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Weekly volumes had already stabilized near 260–270 earlier in August after July’s 24% drop tied to the Saudi shipping blockade, yet persistent security concerns and elevated insurance costs continue to suppress activity. This environment favors the 180–199 band (23%) as the next most likely outcome while capping upside scenarios above 220 at just 14.5%.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
ভলিউম
$10,917শেষ তারিখ
Aug 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Heightened Houthi threats and renewed attacks on commercial vessels have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, driving Polymarket traders to assign the highest implied probability (46%) to fewer than 180 ships for the week of August 10. A recent strike on the cargo ship Tihamah off Yemen’s coast on August 12, which killed several seafarers, reinforced risk aversion and prompted further rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Weekly volumes had already stabilized near 260–270 earlier in August after July’s 24% drop tied to the Saudi shipping blockade, yet persistent security concerns and elevated insurance costs continue to suppress activity. This environment favors the 180–199 band (23%) as the next most likely outcome while capping upside scenarios above 220 at just 14.5%.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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