Recent Houthi threats, including the July 20, 2026, announcement of a blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, triggered an immediate roughly 25-50% drop in transits from prior weekly levels near 350. Data from Clarksons and Kpler show volumes stabilizing around 260-270 transits per week by late July and early August, with daily averages falling to the low 30s amid heightened insurance costs, vessel rerouting around the Cape, and selective avoidance by major carriers. These geopolitical risks, compounded by broader Red Sea security concerns, have elevated freight and war-risk premiums while compressing throughput in a key chokepoint linking Asia-Europe trade routes. With outcomes clustered tightly between 180-219 and 220+, trader consensus reflects uncertainty over any modest rebound in the August 10 week versus sustained suppression or minor volatility from unresolved tensions. Key swing factors include the pace of carrier risk assessments, potential de-escalation signals, and real-time tracking of VLCC, bulk, and container movements.