**Persistent US-Iran tensions and recent attacks on vessels have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at sharply reduced levels, driving the 71% market-implied probability on 25-49 ships for the week of August 10.** Data from Kpler and other trackers show daily crossings averaging around 5-13 vessels in early-to-mid August, far below the pre-conflict baseline of 130-140 per day, amid a de facto blockade, elevated insurance costs, and ships rerouting or going AIS-dark. Attacks on ADNOC tankers on August 13 and stalled peace talks reinforced caution, with Friday transits dropping as low as two and no crude oil movements visible on some days. These factors position 25-49 as the consensus range while leaving room for <25 if disruptions intensify, consistent with trader pricing of sustained but limited throughput.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of August 10?
25-49 71%
<25 28%
50-74 1.0%
75-99 <1%
$35,090 Vol.
$35,090 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<25
28%
25-49
71%
50-74
1%
75-99
<1%
100+
<1%
25-49 71%
<25 28%
50-74 1.0%
75-99 <1%
$35,090 Vol.
$35,090 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<25
$13,427 Vol.
28%
25-49
$13,633 Vol.
71%
50-74
$5,170 Vol.
1%
75-99
$1,663 Vol.
<1%
100+
$1,197 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent US-Iran tensions and recent attacks on vessels have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at sharply reduced levels, driving the 71% market-implied probability on 25-49 ships for the week of August 10.**
Data from Kpler and other trackers show daily crossings averaging around 5-13 vessels in early-to-mid August, far below the pre-conflict baseline of 130-140 per day, amid a de facto blockade, elevated insurance costs, and ships rerouting or going AIS-dark. Attacks on ADNOC tankers on August 13 and stalled peace talks reinforced caution, with Friday transits dropping as low as two and no crude oil movements visible on some days. These factors position 25-49 as the consensus range while leaving room for <25 if disruptions intensify, consistent with trader pricing of sustained but limited throughput.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
ভলিউম
$35,090শেষ তারিখ
Aug 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Persistent US-Iran tensions and recent attacks on vessels have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at sharply reduced levels, driving the 71% market-implied probability on 25-49 ships for the week of August 10.**
Data from Kpler and other trackers show daily crossings averaging around 5-13 vessels in early-to-mid August, far below the pre-conflict baseline of 130-140 per day, amid a de facto blockade, elevated insurance costs, and ships rerouting or going AIS-dark. Attacks on ADNOC tankers on August 13 and stalled peace talks reinforced caution, with Friday transits dropping as low as two and no crude oil movements visible on some days. These factors position 25-49 as the consensus range while leaving room for <25 if disruptions intensify, consistent with trader pricing of sustained but limited throughput.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 10, 2026, through August 16, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
ভলিউম
$35,090শেষ তারিখ
Aug 16, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent US-Iran tensions and recent attacks on vessels have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at sharply reduced levels, driving the 71% market-implied probability on 25-49 ships for the week of August 10.** Data from Kpler and other trackers show daily crossings averaging around 5-13 vessels in early-to-mid August, far below the pre-conflict baseline of 130-140 per day, amid a de facto blockade, elevated insurance costs, and ships rerouting or going AIS-dark. Attacks on ADNOC tankers on August 13 and stalled peace talks reinforced caution, with Friday transits dropping as low as two and no crude oil movements visible on some days. These factors position 25-49 as the consensus range while leaving room for <25 if disruptions intensify, consistent with trader pricing of sustained but limited throughput.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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