Escalating attacks on tankers and persistent conflict risks in the Persian Gulf have driven AIS-visible commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit or low-double-digit daily levels in early October 2026, well below the pre-crisis baseline of roughly 70–85 vessels per day. Recent Kpler and AIS data show weekly aggregates hovering near or below 70 crossings amid projectile strikes, mine threats, and war-risk premiums that have surged to several percent of hull value, prompting rerouting via pipelines and dark transits. With the week of October 12 falling immediately after fresh incidents and amid ongoing US naval facilitation efforts, trader consensus splits between the <20 and 20–24 bins at 26% each, reflecting uncertainty over whether any short-term de-escalation or convoy adjustments could lift volumes into the mid-20s or keep them suppressed near current lows.