The Central Elections Committee’s September 23 vote to disqualify Ofer Cassif from the October 27 Knesset election, based on Likud petitions citing Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset, remains preliminary and requires Supreme Court approval to take effect. The attorney general has stated that the evidence falls short of the strict legal threshold for disqualification on grounds of negating Israel’s character as a Jewish and democratic state or supporting armed struggle. Historical precedent reinforces trader expectations, as the court overturned a similar CEC decision against Cassif in 2019 and has maintained a high evidentiary bar in comparable cases. Hearings scheduled shortly after the committee vote, combined with Cassif’s placement on the Joint List and the short timeline to election day, further support the 89.5% implied probability that any effective ban will not occur.