Traders price the lowest outcome buckets highest because the @khamenei_ir account has followed a consistent low-volume pattern in recent weeks, issuing statements only sporadically after Ali Khamenei’s February 2026 assassination. Activity typically clusters around major diplomatic or military developments rather than following a fixed schedule, and no such catalyst has emerged in the current window. Early May saw brief bursts tied to Persian Gulf messaging, yet the account has since returned to infrequent archival-style posts. With Mojtaba Khamenei focused on internal succession and ongoing regional tensions, the absence of fresh high-stakes announcements supports the market’s expectation of under five posts by week’s end.