Recent global temperature observations, including April 2026 averaging 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels according to Copernicus data, combined with the rapid shift from ENSO-neutral conditions toward an emerging El Niño in May–July 2026, position the 1.10–1.14°C bin as the market favorite. This transition, with El Niño probabilities exceeding 60% from NOAA and multi-model ensembles, adds atmospheric and oceanic heat that aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Traders appear to discount stronger outcomes above 1.15°C for May specifically due to the timing of El Niño intensification, which typically peaks later in the year, while historical May anomalies and current model consensus support values clustered near 1.12°C. Upcoming updates from the National Hurricane Center and seasonal forecasts will likely refine these implied probabilities as new observational data arrives.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMay 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
May 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,574 Vol.
$58,574 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
3%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.10–1.14ºC 61%
<1.10ºC 18%
1.15–1.19ºC 15%
1.20–1.24ºC 7%
$58,574 Vol.
$58,574 Vol.
Jun 10, 2026
<1.10ºC
$23,927 Vol.
18%
1.10–1.14ºC
$5,389 Vol.
61%
1.15–1.19ºC
$8,783 Vol.
15%
1.20–1.24ºC
$6,181 Vol.
7%
1.25–1.29ºC
$6,539 Vol.
3%
>1.29ºC
$7,755 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global temperature observations, including April 2026 averaging 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels according to Copernicus data, combined with the rapid shift from ENSO-neutral conditions toward an emerging El Niño in May–July 2026, position the 1.10–1.14°C bin as the market favorite. This transition, with El Niño probabilities exceeding 60% from NOAA and multi-model ensembles, adds atmospheric and oceanic heat that aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Traders appear to discount stronger outcomes above 1.15°C for May specifically due to the timing of El Niño intensification, which typically peaks later in the year, while historical May anomalies and current model consensus support values clustered near 1.12°C. Upcoming updates from the National Hurricane Center and seasonal forecasts will likely refine these implied probabilities as new observational data arrives.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
ভলিউম
$58,574শেষ তারিখ
Jun 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Recent global temperature observations, including April 2026 averaging 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels according to Copernicus data, combined with the rapid shift from ENSO-neutral conditions toward an emerging El Niño in May–July 2026, position the 1.10–1.14°C bin as the market favorite. This transition, with El Niño probabilities exceeding 60% from NOAA and multi-model ensembles, adds atmospheric and oceanic heat that aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Traders appear to discount stronger outcomes above 1.15°C for May specifically due to the timing of El Niño intensification, which typically peaks later in the year, while historical May anomalies and current model consensus support values clustered near 1.12°C. Upcoming updates from the National Hurricane Center and seasonal forecasts will likely refine these implied probabilities as new observational data arrives.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for May 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for May 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for May 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "May" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for May 2026 is provided by NASA by July 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ভলিউম
$58,574শেষ তারিখ
Jun 10, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Apr 27, 2026, 4:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent global temperature observations, including April 2026 averaging 1.43°C above pre-industrial levels according to Copernicus data, combined with the rapid shift from ENSO-neutral conditions toward an emerging El Niño in May–July 2026, position the 1.10–1.14°C bin as the market favorite. This transition, with El Niño probabilities exceeding 60% from NOAA and multi-model ensembles, adds atmospheric and oceanic heat that aligns with the long-term anthropogenic warming trend of roughly 0.2°C per decade. Traders appear to discount stronger outcomes above 1.15°C for May specifically due to the timing of El Niño intensification, which typically peaks later in the year, while historical May anomalies and current model consensus support values clustered near 1.12°C. Upcoming updates from the National Hurricane Center and seasonal forecasts will likely refine these implied probabilities as new observational data arrives.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা