Recent Hong Kong Observatory data show 124.6 mm accumulated through 9 August 2026, well below the long-term August mean of roughly 450–510 mm. The agency’s seasonal outlook assigns elevated probability to near-normal rainfall for August–October, supported by neutral ENSO conditions and typical southwest monsoon flow. Remaining days feature an extended period of showers and thunderstorms, with model guidance indicating potential for one or more tropical cyclone passages that could add 200–400 mm depending on track and intensity. These factors produce tightly clustered market-implied odds around 450–525 mm bins, reflecting uncertainty in cyclone frequency and exact steering patterns over the final three weeks rather than any strong signal for extremes.